ENVALITH

Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. 1Q Earnings Preview

Following a year in which the three revenue pillars — brokerage commissions, net financial income, and FX — all fired in unison, the sustainability of the market environment and earnings structure faces its test in 1Q

PublishedJuly 24, 2026 at 15:30 GMT+9

Summary

In FY2026/3, Matsui Securities reaffirmed its earnings power as an independent online broker, delivering operating income of +50.1% and ROE of 19.6%. Notably, all three pillars — brokerage commissions, net financial income, and FX trading — achieved double-digit growth, demonstrating that revenue diversification is functioning in practice. For 1Q FY2027/3, with the Nikkei 225 trading in the JPY 50,000–70,000 range, the key question is whether retail investor trading activity can sustain the elevated levels seen in the year-ago quarter, alongside assessing the impact of shifting interest rate dynamics on net financial income. In addition, following the change in shareholder return policy — raising the payout ratio threshold to 70% — the market's focus will be on the balance between profit levels and capital returns. As SBI Securities and Rakuten Securities accelerate scale expansion and ecosystem enhancement, we will be watching whether Matsui's strategy of driving revenue per customer through a distinctive brand strategy and service quality continues to prove effective.

Key Points for Next Quarter

Key Points & FocusImplications

Trading Value TrendsYoY trend in the company's equity brokerage trading value during 1Q

In FY2026/3, overall market +32%, retail +37%, Matsui +35%. If monthly disclosures show +10% or higher YoY in 1Q, full-year revenue growth becomes increasingly probable

Net Financial IncomeMargin loan balance and deposit income distribution levels

Whether the period-end margin trading balance of JPY 456.2B (+22.1%) can be sustained. Financial income at the JPY 20.879B level is subject to fluctuation depending on BOJ rate policy

FX TradingQuarterly trend in FX trading gains/losses

JPY 5.819B in FY2026/3 (+55.1%). Need to assess the balance between volume growth driven by permanent spread reductions and profitability

Cost ManagementYoY change in SG&A and OPM

In FY2026/3, SG&A rose +19.2% while OPM improved to 44.6% (+4.7pt). Monitor whether the pace of advertising and personnel cost increases outpaces revenue growth

Capital Efficiency & Shareholder ReturnsROE level and application of the new dividend policy (70% payout ratio threshold)

FY2026/3 ROE of 19.6% (well above 8% cost of equity). The first dividend determination under the new policy will influence market valuation

Security ResponseOccurrence of extraordinary gains/losses related to unauthorized access

In FY2026/3, JPY 375M in compensation payments and JPY 212M in insurance recoveries were recorded. Monitor ongoing cost risk and progress on countermeasures. However, the impact on extraordinary items is expected to be minimal, at JPY 16M in 4Q

Competitive LandscapeTrends in new account openings and AUM

SBI Securities surpassed JPY 70T in AUM; Rakuten Securities is advancing its fintech reorganization. Verify through monthly data whether the company's differentiation as an independent player is translating into customer acquisition

Key Issues from Previous Results (FY2026/3 Full-Year Results)

FY2026/3 saw strong growth, with operating revenue of JPY 52.660B (+34.3%) and operating income of JPY 23.462B (+50.1%), against a buoyant market backdrop in which the Nikkei 225 breached the JPY 50,000 level for the first time and closed the fiscal year at JPY 51,063. ROE rose to 19.6%, delivering capital efficiency well above the 8% cost of equity. Three structural themes — revenue diversification, dividend policy changes, and security enhancements — form the key discussion points going forward.

1. Sustainability of Brokerage Commissions and Market-Dependency Risk

  • FY2026/3:
    Brokerage commissions of JPY 24.805B (+31.3%); retail equity brokerage trading value on the two exchanges +37%
  • FY2027/3 Checkpoint:
    Whether monthly trading values in April–June maintain positive YoY momentum; shifts in trading activity driven by market volatility
  • Key Metrics:
    YoY change in equity brokerage trading value per monthly disclosures; maintenance of ~25% retail market share on the two exchanges (FY2026/3 level)
The company's revenue structure remains highly dependent on brokerage commissions, which account for approximately 47% of operating revenue. Given the direct link between market conditions and earnings, the market environment in 1Q will be a key determinant of revenue levels.

2. Upside Potential in Net Financial Income and Interest Rate Environment

  • FY2026/3:
    Financial income JPY 20.9B (+34.9%), financial expenses JPY 3.573B (+72.7%), net financial income JPY 17.3B
  • FY2027/3 Checkpoint:
    BOJ monetary policy direction and short-term rate trajectory; changes in margin loan balances
  • Key Metrics:
    Quarterly trend in net financial income (our estimate: FY2026/3 full-year JPY 17.3B implies a quarterly average of ~JPY 4.3B); deposit income distribution levels
Net financial income expanded to JPY 17.306B (+29.0%) on the back of rising interest rates, contributing to earnings stability. Margin loans grew to JPY 423.617B (+27.1%), meaning the earnings sensitivity to interest rate changes is greater than ever.

3. Sustainability of FX Trading Income Growth

  • FY2026/3:
    Trading income of JPY 5.8B; currency pair offerings expanded to 32; multiple spread reduction initiatives implemented
  • FY2027/3 Checkpoint:
    Whether post-permanization volume growth can offset per-unit revenue dilution; level of FX volatility
  • Key Metrics:
    Monthly FX trading volume trends; quarterly trend in trading income
FX trading income surged to JPY 5.8B (+55.1%), expanding to approximately 11% of operating revenue. While permanent spread reductions are expected to drive volume growth, they also carry the risk of lower per-unit profitability.

4. Cost Structure and OPM Sustainability

  • FY2026/3:
    SG&A JPY 25.6B, OPM 44.6%, transaction-related expenses JPY 8.448B
  • FY2027/3 Checkpoint:
    Trajectory of advertising investment and personnel cost increases; costs for expanding call center operations
  • Key Metrics:
    Maintenance of OPM above 40% (39.9% → 44.6% in FY2026/3); YoY change in SG&A
SG&A rose to JPY 25.625B (+19.2%), but revenue growth outpaced cost increases, lifting OPM to 44.6% (+4.7pt). The three main cost drivers — advertising expenses (transaction-related expenses +25.1%), personnel costs (+24.6%), and administrative expenses (+19.0%) — are each positioned as strategic investments aimed at brand building and service enhancement.

5. Changes to Shareholder Return Policy and Capital Management

  • FY2026/3:
    Annual dividend of JPY 50 (payout ratio 83.2%, DOE 16.3%), net assets JPY 82.347B (+7.5%)
  • FY2027/3 Checkpoint:
    Interim dividend level under the new policy; potential for share buybacks
  • Key Metrics:
    Consistency between the 70% payout ratio threshold and actual profit levels; sustainability of ROE (19.6% in FY2026/3)
The payout ratio threshold was raised from 60% to 70%, and the DOE-based criterion was abolished. The FY2026/3 payout ratio of 83.2% and DOE of 16.3% significantly exceeded the former thresholds, making the new policy effectively a recalibration to align with actual practice. With no earnings guidance disclosed, the level at which the first dividend under the new framework is set will be a key focus.

Timely Disclosure & Industry Trends

  • 2026/06/30
    Permanent Spread Reductions on 27 FX Currency Pairs - Campaign-based pricing made permanent, strengthening FX trading price competitiveness. While trading volume expansion is anticipated, the impact on per-unit profitability warrants monitoring. Notice of Permanent Spread Reduction on 27 FX Currency Pairs
  • 2026/06/26
    MATSUI Bank JPY Ordinary Deposit Rate Raised to a Maximum of 0.75% p.a. - Increased from 0.65% in the prior year. Contributes to strengthening AUM retention and competitive positioning of bank-linked services. MATSUI Bank Raises JPY Ordinary Deposit Rate to an Industry-Leading 0.75% p.a. (Pre-Tax)
  • 2026/06/01
    JCB Credit Card Tsumitate New User Campaign Launched - Up to 4x points on investment trust balances, designed to drive investment trust AUM growth and new customer acquisition. Matsui Securities Launches Campaign Offering Up to 4x Points on Investment Trust Balances
  • 2026/05/26
    Announced Handling of SpaceX Shares from Listing Day - Immediate availability of a high-profile large-cap IPO name reinforces the appeal of the company's US equities service. Handling of SpaceX Shares to Begin from Listing Day

Previous Quarter Results (FY2026/3 Full-Year Results)

Matsui Securities is an independent online broker operating a single-segment business providing online securities trading services for retail investors. As the only firm among the top five that does not belong to a conglomerate, the company pursues a quality-focused strategy targeting active investors under the slogan "Making Investing Serious and Fun." In FY2026/3, the company benefited from a buoyant market in which the Nikkei 225 breached JPY 50,000 for the first time. All three revenue pillars — brokerage commissions, net financial income, and FX trading — achieved double-digit growth. OPM improved to 44.6%, and ROE reached 19.6%, well exceeding the 8% cost of equity.

ItemAmountYoYvs. GuidanceNotes
Operating RevenueJPY 52.7B+34.3%-Driven by the three pillars: brokerage commissions, financial income, and FX
Net Operating RevenueJPY 49.087B+32.2%-After deducting financial expenses of JPY 3.6B (+72.7%)
Operating IncomeJPY 23.5B+50.1%-OPM 44.6% (prior year 39.9%)
Recurring ProfitJPY 23.813B+55.7%-Includes JPY 614M in investment partnership gains
Net IncomeJPY 15.480B+47.4%-Extraordinary losses include JPY 1.474B provision for financial instruments transaction liabilities and JPY 375M in compensation payments
EPSJPY 60.11+47.3%-Weighted average shares outstanding: 257,523,635

*The company does not publish earnings guidance due to the market-dependent nature of securities business performance; therefore, comparison vs. guidance is not applicable.

Company Information

  • Company Name
    : Matsui Securities Co., Ltd.
  • Ticker
    : 8628
  • Listed Exchange
    : Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market
  • Fiscal Year-End
    : March
  • Core Business
    : Online securities trading services for retail investors (equities, margin trading, FX, investment trusts, US equities, etc.)
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