MATSUI SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Full-Year (4Q) Earnings Preview

With cumulative 3Q recurring profit up +36.0% YoY driven by buoyant equity markets and strong FX revenue growth, the focus now shifts to full-year landing levels and the impact of the revised shareholder return policy

PublishedApril 23, 2026 at 11:30 GMT+9

Summary

Matsui Securities Inc. is an independent online brokerage specializing in retail investor services, with a revenue mix centered on brokerage commissions complemented by FX trading income and net financial income. Through 3Q cumulative, the firm delivered double-digit growth across all revenue lines, buoyed by the Nikkei 225's historic breach of JPY 50,000. OPM (vs. net operating revenue) improved to 47.2% from 44.1% in the year-ago period. For the full-year results, key focal points include equity market volatility trends from October onward and the concrete impact of the revised shareholder return policy announced in February (dividend payout ratio raised to 70%+). Initiatives deepening the customer base—such as the official YouTube channel surpassing 660K subscribers and the introduction of MATSUI Bank's interest rate program—will be critical in shaping medium- to long-term growth potential.

Key Points for Next Quarter

Key Points & FocusImplications

Equity Brokerage TurnoverCompany's equity brokerage turnover and market share in 4Q (Jan–Mar)

Cumulative 3Q rose +26% YoY. If 4Q standalone maintains a similar growth rate, full-year operating revenue could reach approximately JPY 50B (our estimate)

FX Trading Income4Q standalone FX trading P&L trends

Cumulative 3Q reached JPY 4,419M (+44.8%), sustaining high growth. Need to verify whether the USD/JPY spread reduction to 0.1 pips contributed to volume expansion

Sustainability of Net Financial IncomeMargin loan balance and customer deposit revenue distribution levels

Cumulative 3Q net financial income was JPY 12,451M (+23.6%). Key question is whether the net effect of higher deposit income vs. declining margin balances amid BOJ rate hikes persists into 4Q

Cost Management and OPMSG&A growth rate and OPM YoY trends

Cumulative 3Q SG&A grew +16.4%, trailing revenue growth (+25.6%), generating positive operating leverage. Monitoring 4Q trends including advertising ROI

Impact of Revised Shareholder Return PolicyYear-end dividend amount and confirmed annual dividend

The company announced in February a policy to raise the payout ratio threshold to "70% or above." If year-end DPS of JPY 25 (annual JPY 50) is confirmed, the payout level relative to full-year EPS can be assessed against cumulative 3Q EPS of JPY 42.98

Unauthorized Access-Related CostsNet cost of compensation payments and insurance recoveries

Cumulative 3Q recorded JPY 359M in compensation payments and JPY 212M in insurance recoveries. Need to confirm whether additional costs arise in 4Q

Customer Base ExpansionTrends in account numbers and AUM

Tracking the pace of growth from the #5 position among the top five online brokerages (1.649M accounts as of end-March 2025), along with AUM accumulation

Key Issues from Previous Results (FY2026/3 3Q Results)

Cumulative 3Q operating revenue reached JPY 37,293M (+25.6% YoY) and recurring profit JPY 16,905M (+36.0% YoY), with all P&L line items posting significant top- and bottom-line growth amid a buoyant equity market. Revenue diversification (FX + net financial income) and revenue growth outpacing cost increases directly drove OPM improvement, establishing a strong track record on both "volume" and "quality" fronts. Full-year landing depends on 4Q (Jan–Mar) market conditions, but the profit level through 3Q cumulative stands at an elevated base.

1. Sustainability of Brokerage Commission Revenue and Market Sensitivity

  • Prior Period:
    Brokerage commissions were JPY 17,217M (+19.7% YoY). The company's equity brokerage turnover rose +26% YoY, with retail turnover market share on the two exchanges climbing to 26% (vs. 24% in the year-ago period)
  • This Quarter Confirmation:
    The Nikkei 225 held around the JPY 50,000 level in 4Q (Jan–Mar) but may have entered a correction phase; full-year landing needs to be estimated from seasonality in turnover and monthly disclosure data
  • Key Metrics:
    Monthly disclosed equity brokerage turnover YoY trends; changes in retail turnover market share on the two exchanges
The core of the company's revenue structure is retail equity brokerage, making earnings highly sensitive to market conditions. Through cumulative 3Q, the Nikkei 225 broke above JPY 50,000 for the first time, and retail equity brokerage turnover across the two exchanges rose +28% YoY.

2. Accelerating Growth in FX Trading Revenue

  • Prior Period:
    Trading P&L was JPY 4,419M (+44.8% YoY). Its share of total operating revenue rose to 11.8% (vs. 10.3% in the year-ago period)
  • This Quarter Confirmation:
    FX volatility levels in 4Q and volume trends following the spread reduction. Monthly FX turnover data provides a key indicator
  • Key Metrics:
    4Q standalone trading P&L (our estimate: ~JPY 1,365M for 3Q standalone); pace of FX account growth
The FX business is increasingly positioned as a key pillar of revenue diversification. In addition to introducing core-time pricing for USD/JPY and permanently narrowing spreads, the company further reduced the USD/JPY tight spread from 0.2 pips to 0.1 pips in February 2026 to enhance competitiveness.

3. Net Financial Income Expansion in a Rising Rate Environment

  • Prior Period:
    Financial revenue was JPY 14,792M (+29.2% YoY); financial expenses were JPY 2,341M (+70.4% YoY). Customer deposits expanded to JPY 773,912M (+24.6% vs. prior fiscal year-end)
  • This Quarter Confirmation:
    Impact on deposit revenue distribution from shifts in the BOJ's tightening stance, and 4Q changes in margin loan balances (JPY 337,088M at 3Q-end)
  • Key Metrics:
    4Q standalone net financial income; directional change in margin loan balances
Net financial income reached JPY 12,451M (+23.6% YoY) on a cumulative 3Q basis, driven by higher deposit revenue distribution linked to rising interest rates. Conversely, margin trading income declined due to lower margin buying balances.

4. Cost Structure Evolution and Operating Leverage

  • Prior Period:
    Transaction-related expenses JPY 5,912M (+22.1% YoY), personnel costs JPY 3,527M (+18.6% YoY), and administrative expenses JPY 4,700M (+18.3% YoY)—all major cost items posting double-digit increases
  • This Quarter Confirmation:
    Scale of continued advertising investment in 4Q
  • Key Metrics:
    Full-year SG&A ratio (vs. net operating revenue); YoY improvement in cost-income ratio
SG&A rose to JPY 18,443M (+16.4% YoY), but trailed revenue growth (operating revenue +25.6%), lifting OPM (vs. net operating revenue) to 47.2%. The main cost drivers were advertising expenses (nationwide TV campaign featuring Alice Hirose), system investments, and personnel costs.

5. Unauthorized Trading Response and Trust Preservation

  • Prior Period:
    Net cost of JPY 147M from JPY 359M in compensation payments and JPY 212M in insurance recoveries. Provision for financial instruments transaction liabilities also increased to JPY 803M (vs. JPY 172M in the year-ago period)
  • This Quarter Confirmation:
    Whether additional unauthorized trading-related costs arise in 4Q; adherence to Passkey implementation timeline
  • Key Metrics:
    Net extraordinary items impact; additional disclosure on security investment
The industry-wide unauthorized access issue affecting brokerage accounts in 2025 also impacted the company, resulting in JPY 359M in compensation payments (extraordinary loss) and JPY 212M in insurance recoveries (extraordinary gain). Countermeasures including Passkey implementation (targeted for March 2026) are underway.

Timely Disclosure & Industry Trends

  • 2026/04/01
    Core-time pricing introduced for all FX currency pairs; standard spreads narrowed for 18 currency pairs — Expansion of competitiveness-enhancing measures for the FX business. Expected to contribute to trading revenue from 4Q onward through increased transaction volume. Matsui Securities Company Information & IR
  • 2026/04/01
    Disclosure of March 2026 monthly trading volume, account numbers, etc. (preliminary figures) — As the final month's performance data for the fiscal year, this is a critical disclosure directly informing 4Q landing estimates. Matsui Securities March 2026 Monthly Trading Volume & Account Numbers (Preliminary)
  • 2026/03/12
    Expansion of U.S. equity coverage (trading available from day one of PayPay's NASDAQ listing) — Same-day access to a high-profile IPO strengthens the appeal of the U.S. equities service. Matsui Securities U.S. Equities PayPay Trading Launch
  • 2026/02/27
    Announcement of FY2026/3 planned dividend and change to shareholder return policy — Year-end DPS of JPY 25 (annual JPY 50) announced, with the payout ratio threshold raised to "70% or above" (effective from FY2027/3). DOE-based criteria discontinued. A significant positive signal for investors as an enhancement of shareholder returns. Matsui Securities FY2026/3 Planned Dividend and Change to Shareholder Return Policy
  • 2026/02/12
    FX USD/JPY tight spread reduced from 0.2 pips to 0.1 pips — Enhances pricing competitiveness for the flagship currency pair. Focus on the revenue uplift effect through expanded FX trading volume. Matsui Securities FX USD/JPY Spread Reduction

Previous Quarter Results (FY2026/3 3Q Actuals)

Matsui Securities Inc. pioneered online securities trading in Japan in 1998 as an independent online brokerage, and has since expanded from its core retail equity brokerage into FX, U.S. equities, and investment trusts. As one of the top five online brokerages in Japan, the company differentiates through a distinctive marketing strategy leveraging its official YouTube channel (660K subscribers, 120M+ views) and its partnership with MATSUI Bank. The company does not provide earnings guidance due to the inherent sensitivity of securities business performance to market conditions; however, through cumulative 3Q, the buoyant equity market and strong FX revenue growth drove +20–36% YoY high growth across all P&L line items.

ItemAmountYoYvs. GuidanceRemarks
Operating RevenueJPY 37,293M+25.6%-Commissions received, trading P&L, and financial revenue all posted double-digit growth
Net Operating RevenueJPY 34,952M+23.4%-Absorbed increase in financial expenses of JPY 2,341M (+70.4%)
Operating IncomeJPY 16,509M+32.3%-OPM improved to 47.2% (vs. 44.1% in the year-ago period)
Recurring ProfitJPY 16,905M+36.0%-Investment partnership gains of JPY 623M contributed to non-operating income
Quarterly Net IncomeJPY 11,069M+30.5%-Compensation payments of JPY 359M partially offset by insurance recoveries of JPY 212M
EPSJPY 42.98+30.5%-Weighted average shares outstanding: 257,506,826

*The company does not disclose earnings guidance as securities business performance is subject to market conditions; therefore, vs. guidance comparison is not applicable.

Company Information

  • Company Name:
    Matsui Securities Co., Ltd.
  • Ticker:
    8628
  • Listed Exchange:
    Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market
  • Fiscal Year-End:
    March
  • Core Business:
    Online securities trading services for retail investors (equity brokerage, margin trading, FX, U.S. equities, investment trusts, etc.)
Disclaimer

Envalith, Inc. ("Envalith") provides exclusive research coverage services to domestic and international institutional investors, as well as domestic individual investors, with the objective of contributing to the development of global and Japanese capital markets by providing information necessary for considering investments in Japanese listed companies.

  • Purpose and Disclaimer Regarding Investment Decisions

    This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a solicitation to acquire, sell, or hold securities or any other financial products. Furthermore, this report does not constitute specific investment, financial, or tax advice. Any opinions, judgments, or recommendations contained herein are not intended to induce investment activities. Please be advised that all investment decisions must be made based on the investor's own responsibility and judgment, and Envalith and subject company shall not be involved in any such investment decisions.

  • Information Sources, Accuracy, and Disclaimer of Warranty

    This report has been prepared based on a formal request from the subject company, utilizing information provided by and interviews conducted with said company. By using this report, you are deemed to have agreed to the following: 1. Information Sources: This report is prepared on the assumption that the publicly available information and information disclosed by the subject company and provided during interviews is true and reliable. Envalith has not independently verified or validated the veracity of such information. 2. Accuracy: The interpretations, analyses, and hypotheses or conclusions based thereon contained in this report are independently derived by Envalith using its own perspectives and analytical methods based on the information mentioned in the preceding paragraph. 3. Disclaimer of Warranty: In the event that there are errors or omissions in the information disclosed by the subject company, Envalith and subject company shall not be held liable for any inaccuracies in this report resulting therefrom. Envalith and subject company make no warranties, whether express or implied, regarding the accuracy, safety, validity, completeness, or any other aspect of this report, nor regarding the past or future performance of the subject company.

  • Limitation of Liability

    Envalith and subject company shall not be liable for any costs, damages, or losses (including direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages) arising from the use of this report or the information obtained therefrom. Users of this report acknowledge and agree that such use is at their own risk.

  • Potential Conflicts of Interest

    Envalith may have, or may have in the future, business relationships with the subject company. Accordingly, investors should be aware that conflicts of interest may exist that could affect the objectivity of this report.

  • No Obligation to Change or Update Content

    The contents and opinions in this report, as well as the information upon which it is based, are current as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Please be advised that Envalith is under no obligation to update the contents of this report, and investors must verify the timeliness of the information on their own.

  • Governing Language

    This report is prepared in Japanese, English, and Chinese. In the event of any discrepancy or difference in interpretation between the language versions, the Japanese version shall be treated as the original and shall prevail.

  • Copyright

    All rights (including copyrights) relating to this report belong to Envalith. Any reproduction, redistribution, or other use of all or part of this report without the prior written permission of Envalith is strictly prohibited.

  • Use for Other Investment Products

    Except where Envalith has provided prior written approval, the use of this report and the trademarks or trade names of Envalith or the subject company in connection with the information distribution, transaction, sales promotion, or advertising of any investment products (including derivatives, structured products, investment trusts, or investment assets whose price, return, or performance is based on or linked to this report) is strictly prohibited.