Key Positives From The Full-Year Results
Focusing on consumer electronics/gadgets produced a steady stream of large-ticket projects. Higher average project size drove GMV to JPY 22,980M (+30.2% YoY). SG&A growth was held to +14.2% YoY, so operating income grew far faster than revenue, reaching JPY 881M (+97.2% YoY). Curator support for lifting project size is now embedded as a repeatable process, and we view the step-up in earnings power positively.
- Monthly Average GMV Per Project (4Q):JPY 1.83M (+30.2%). Many projects reached the several-hundred-million-JPY scale, and higher project size more than offset the decline in project count.
- Cumulative Support Purchase Value Per Project Owner:JPY 6.743M (+31.8% YoY, our estimate). The company can grow by expanding GMV per owner even with a broadly flat owner base.
- Ad Placement Agency Revenue:JPY 1,215M for the full year (+66.7% YoY, our estimate). Wider uptake among growth-oriented project owners added upside.
- Operating Income Margin:Improved to 14.8% (prior year: 9.8%). SG&A discipline absorbed the decline in gross profit margin, so operating leverage from revenue growth flowed through to profit.
- Mid-Term Plan Targets:The FY2027/9 targets (revenue of JPY 5.2B / operating income of JPY 700M) were achieved a year early. Operating CF of JPY 1,299M will fund the first dividend and a share buyback.
Key Concerns From The Full-Year Results
Growth was driven mainly by project size, while project count and repeat metrics fell YoY. 4Q operating income was just JPY 37M (OPM 2.4%), squeezed by upfront investment and bonuses. Revenue is flow-based and hinges on large-ticket projects. The low end of FY2027/9 guidance implies a decline in operating income.
- Project Count (4Q):Monthly active projects totaled 1,044 (-2.9%) and new project launches 1,384 (-2.7%). Management cites new acquisition and repeat retention in lower-ticket categories as key challenges.
- Repeat Metrics:The project owner repeat rate fell to 60.3% (-2.2pt) and the supporter repeat purchase rate to 71.7% (-4.5pt). Repeat metrics deteriorated on both the owner and supporter side.
- Gross Profit Margin:Fell to 72.2% (prior year: 75.0%). The cause was a higher mix of ad placement agency revenue, which is booked on a gross basis, and margin pressure may persist.
- 4Q SG&A:JPY 1,050M (+19.5%). One-off personnel costs of roughly JPY 80M coincided with upfront investment, highlighting the volatility of quarterly earnings.
- Net Income Quality:Net income benefited from a deferred income tax adjustment of JPY -58M. FY2027/9 net income guidance of -16.1% to +5.2% is weaker than operating income guidance.
Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward
- New Mid-Term Plan:The plan (FY2027/9–FY2029/9) is due by year-end. Beyond GMV and profit targets, the key focus is how concrete the capital policy is, given the stated goal of ROE above the mid-teens.
- KPI Shift:Management is moving its KPI to "number of project owners × GMV per project owner" to transition toward a recurring (stock-type) model. We want to see the owner count (cumulative 3,280, -1.8% YoY) turn around and project count recover in lower-ticket categories.
- Upfront Investment:We will track the pace of spending (development personnel, security, offline experiences) and where results land within the JPY 800–1,000M operating income range.
- GMV growth and OPM targets under the new mid-term plan, and the total level of upfront investment over the three years
- The scale of "flexible additional upfront investment" assumed at the low end of FY2027/9 guidance, and the KPIs used to measure payback
- How far prioritizing security work will delay new feature development, and when project count in lower-ticket categories will recover
- The assumed floor for gross profit margin as ad placement agency revenue expands, and its contribution to operating income
- Capital allocation priorities among DOE 3%-based dividends, opportunistic buybacks and M&A
Key Financial Highlights
| Item | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| GMV | JPY 22,980M | +30.2% |
| Revenue | JPY 5,944M | +29.9% |
| └ Makuake and Other Ancillary Services Revenue | JPY 4,727M | +22.9% (our estimate) |
| └ Ad Placement Agency Revenue | JPY 1,215M | +66.7% (our estimate) |
| Gross Profit | JPY 4,294M | +25.0% |
| Gross Profit Margin | 72.2% | Prior year: 75.0% |
| SG&A | JPY 3,412M | +14.2% |
| Operating Income | JPY 881M | +97.2% |
| Operating Income Margin | 14.8% | Prior year: 9.8% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 888M | +86.9% |
| Extraordinary Loss (Impairment Loss) | JPY 50M | Prior year: JPY 18M |
| Net Income | JPY 798M | +96.1% |
| EPS | JPY 62.63 | +96.0% |
| 4Q Revenue | JPY 1,552M | +26.4% |
| 4Q Operating Income | JPY 37M | +38.2% |
| Monthly Average GMV Per Project (4Q) | JPY 1.83M | +30.2% |
| Monthly Active Projects (4Q) | 1,044 | -2.9% |
| Members | 3,625,434 | +11.9% |
The revenue breakdown is our estimate, aggregating the quarterly revenue disclosed in the earnings presentation. Recurring profit grew more slowly than operating income (+86.9%) because the prior year's JPY 23M compensation income did not recur. Total income taxes were only JPY 38M, so net income landed close to recurring profit.
Performance By Business Segment
The company operates a single segment, the Support Purchase Service business. Revenue growth was driven by higher project size from large-ticket consumer electronics/gadget projects and by expansion of ad placement agency services.
Segment Performance Table
| Segment | Revenue | YoY | Operating Income | YoY | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support Purchase Service Business | JPY 5,944M | +29.9% | JPY 881M | +97.2% | 14.8% |
- Consumer Electronics/Gadgets: Monthly average GMV per project rose 30.2%. Large-ticket projects continued in 4Q, including a 4K projector with over JPY 500M in support purchases. Project size stayed high even without 3Q's mega-project.
- Large Corporates and Overseas Brands: In 4Q, BLUETTI JAPAN and XGIMI each exceeded JPY 200M. The platform is now an established venue for overseas brands' product debuts and for major domestic companies creating new categories.
- Ad Placement Agency: 4Q revenue was JPY 357M (+58.0%, our estimate). The take rate recovered QoQ to 28.6%.
- Consumer Touchpoints: Members rose 11.9% and unique visitors 9.2%. The experiential pop-up "Sawareru Makuake" drew 24,792 visitors, about 500% of plan.
- Lower-Ticket Categories: 4Q new project launches fell 2.7%, and launches by repeat project owners fell 6.2%. The focus on priority categories delayed new acquisition and repeat retention in lower-ticket categories.
- Supporter Purchasing Behavior: 4Q support purchase count fell 7.2%. Higher project size lifted value, but purchase count and the supporter repeat purchase rate (-4.5pt) both declined.
- 4Q GMV: JPY 5,965M, down 4.0% QoQ, reflecting a pullback from 3Q's mega-project.
Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance
GMV, revenue and operating income all came in above the initial plan (company disclosure). Against the current mid-term plan's FY2027/9 targets, revenue reached 114.3% and operating income 125.9%, exceeding the targets a year early (our estimate).
| Item | Value (Full-Year Actual) | Mid-Term Plan Target (FY2027/9) | Achievement Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 5,944M | JPY 5,200M | 114.3% |
| Operating Income | JPY 881M | JPY 700M | 125.9% |
| Net Income | JPY 798M | - | - |
- Revenue is flow-based, so quarterly results tend to swing with the presence or absence of large projects (company explanation).
- In both the prior and current years, 4Q SG&A peaked for the year on bonuses and upfront investment, leaving OPM in the 2% range.
Changes To Guidance
Current-year full-year guidance was revised on 2026/9/1. The company has now issued FY2027/9 guidance as a range: revenue of JPY 6,000–7,000M (+0.9% to +17.7%), operating income of JPY 800–1,000M (-9.3% to +13.4%) and net income of JPY 670–840M (-16.1% to +5.2%). At the midpoint, operating income is JPY 900M (+2.0%, our estimate), implying a broadly flat plan as upfront investment continues. The high end assumes continued growth in priority categories and investment executed as planned. The low end assumes additional investment spending.
Commentary On Shareholder Returns
- First Dividend:A year-end dividend of JPY 14 (total payout of JPY 178M, payout ratio 22.4%, DOE 3.1%). The company forecasts an annual JPY 14 for FY2027/9.
- Return Policy:The company targets stable returns based on DOE of 3% and plans to raise payouts in line with profit growth. It aims for ROE above the mid-teens over the medium term.
- Share Buyback:Up to 510,739 shares (4% of shares outstanding) and up to JPY 600M, from 2026/11/9 to 2027/3/31 via open-market purchases. Buybacks are not assumed to recur every year.
Financial Position
The company is debt-free with an equity ratio of 70.3%. Consistently positive FCF is building up cash, providing the financial headroom to fund both growth investment and shareholder returns.
- Key Figures
- Leverage Metrics
| Item | Value | Additional Information |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and Deposits | JPY 5,605M | +20.4% YoY |
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | JPY 7,228M | +21.1% YoY; includes JPY 1,622M in deposits held for projects |
| Deposits Received | JPY 1,634M | +24.7% YoY |
| Total Assets | JPY 8,793M | +18.0% YoY |
| Shareholders' Equity | JPY 6,180M | +14.9% YoY |
| Interest-Bearing Debt | None | Debt-free |
| Intangible Assets | JPY 521M | -28.5% YoY |
| Operating CF | JPY 1,299M | Prior year: JPY 985M |
| FCF | JPY 1,254M | Operating CF + investing CF; our estimate |
| EBITDA | JPY 1,086M | Operating income + depreciation of JPY 204M; our estimate |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Net Debt/EBITDA | -5.2x | Net cash; based on cash and deposits; prior year -7.4x; our estimate |
| Debt/Equity | 0.00x | Debt-free |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 11,307x | Interest expense of JPY 78K; our estimate |
| Equity Ratio | 70.3% | Prior year: 72.2%; company disclosure |
Disclosures Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement
- 2026/10/27The company simultaneously approved a first year-end dividend of JPY 14, a share buyback of up to JPY 600M, and stock option compensation for directors. The package clearly signals stronger shareholder returns
- 2026/10/27The company announced a shift in its KPI to "number of project owners × GMV per project owner." A new mid-term plan (FY2027/9–FY2029/9) is scheduled for disclosure by year-end
Major Announcements During The Quarter
- 2026/08/03The company released a video presentation of its 3Q results, covering the quarter that included a mega-project
- 2026/09/01The company revised its full-year guidance for FY2026/9
- 2026/10/01The company announced it would hold a full-year earnings briefing
- 2026/10/09The company announced a change in title for its Representative Director. The earnings release cites entry into the next growth stage under a "new management structure" as a reason for initiating the dividend
Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year
None
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