Summary
For 9M FY09/2026, Revenue was JPY 4,392M (+31.1% YoY) and Operating Income JPY 844M (+101.0% YoY). GMV expansion and SG&A restraint combined to drive strong operating leverage. Against the full-year plan in the earnings release (Revenue JPY 5,400M, Operating Income JPY 670–800M), 9M Operating Income and Recurring Profit had already exceeded the upper end of the range. The company announced a guidance revision on September 1, 2026. At full-year results, the focus will be the final outcome against the revised plan, together with 4Q (July–September 2026) standalone GMV growth and profitability. Standalone 4Q Operating Income was modest in each of the past two fiscal years, so the key question is how management balanced seasonality against upfront investment. We will also look for the drivers of the decline in Gross Profit Margin to 73.0% (75.5% a year earlier), the background to the JPY 50,790K impairment loss, and any dividend or shareholder return policy disclosed with the full-year results.
Key Points for Next Quarter
| Key Points & Focus | Implications |
|---|---|
Full-Year Plan AchievementFull-year Revenue and Operating Income outcome; achievement rate vs. revised plan | 9M Operating Income of JPY 844M already exceeds the JPY 800M upper end of the initial plan. With the guidance revision announced on September 1, 2026, the outcome vs. the revised plan will be the starting point for valuation. |
GMV Growth4Q standalone and full-year GMV YoY | 9M GMV reached JPY 17,014M (+31.1%). Growth against prior-year 4Q standalone GMV will be a key gauge of sustainability. |
4Q Standalone Profitability4Q standalone Operating Income and Operating Income Margin | Prior-year 4Q standalone Operating Income was thin at JPY 27M (our estimate). The 4Q standalone margin relative to the 9M OPM of 19.2% will indicate whether the improvement is seasonal or structural. |
Margin MixGross Profit Margin and contribution from ad placement agency and other services | 9M Gross Profit Margin fell to 73.0% from 75.5% a year earlier. The impact of expanding ad placement agency services and Makuake STORE for EC mall agency services on gross margin needs to be clarified. |
Cost Structure and Bottom LineSG&A growth; breakdown of extraordinary items and income taxes | 9M SG&A was JPY 2,362M (+12.0%), well below Revenue growth of +31.1%. Full-year amounts for the JPY 50,790K impairment loss and JPY 113,883K in income taxes will determine the gap vs. the JPY 590–700M Net Income plan. |
Key Issues from Previous Results (FY09/2026 3Q Results)
9M Revenue was JPY 4,392M (+31.1%), Operating Income JPY 844M (+101.0%) and Net Income JPY 683M (+77.3%), with top-line growth and margin expansion moving in tandem. The company won high-quality project creators in the home appliances and gadgets category, while curators helped lift ticket sizes. This generated large projects each worth JPY several hundred million and expanded GMV to JPY 17,014M. At full-year results, the central issues will be 4Q standalone growth and profitability, and confirmation of the full-year outcome incorporating the upward revision.
1. Full-Year Outcome vs. Plan and 4Q Standalone Performance
- Previous Period: 9M Recurring Profit was JPY 848M, representing 106.1–126.6% of the JPY 670–800M full-year plan in the earnings release (our estimate).
- This Period's Check: The company announced a guidance revision on September 1, 2026. We will confirm the final outcome against the revised plan and the level of 4Q standalone Revenue and Operating Income.
- Key Metrics: Achievement rates for full-year Revenue and Operating Income vs. plan; 4Q standalone Revenue YoY (prior-year 4Q standalone Revenue of JPY 1,228M, our estimate).
2. Sustainability of GMV Growth
- Previous Period: 9M GMV rose 31.1% YoY to JPY 17,014M, matching Revenue growth.
- This Period's Check: Using full-year GMV and YoY growth, we will verify whether the acquisition of high-quality project creators and higher project ticket sizes continued into 4Q (July–September 2026).
- Key Metrics: Full-year GMV; management commentary on active project count and per-project ticket size (earnings presentation materials).
3. Drivers of Gross Profit Margin Decline and Service Mix
- Previous Period: 9M Gross Profit Margin was 73.0%, down 2.5pt from 75.5% a year earlier (our estimate).
- This Period's Check: We will cross-check management commentary on how the expansion of ancillary services such as ad placement agency and Makuake STORE for EC malls is affecting the cost ratio.
- Key Metrics: Full-year Gross Profit Margin; Cost of Goods Sold YoY (9M: JPY 1,185,555K vs. JPY 820,067K a year earlier).
4. SG&A Control and Operating Leverage
- Previous Period: 9M SG&A was held to JPY 2,362,152K (+12.0%). The gap vs. Revenue growth of +31.1% lifted OPM to 19.2% (12.5% a year earlier; our estimate).
- This Period's Check: We will assess how costs from new creator acquisition initiatives and offline events from 4Q onward were balanced against margin maintenance.
- Key Metrics: Full-year SG&A YoY; full-year OPM (prior full-year actual: 9.8%).
5. Bottom-Line Drags and Shareholder Return Policy at Full-Year Results
- Previous Period: Net Income grew only +77.3% vs. +100.2% for Recurring Profit, reflecting a JPY 50,790K impairment loss and JPY 113,883K in income taxes. Intangible assets declined by JPY 168,006K from the start of the fiscal year.
- This Period's Check: We will review the breakdown of full-year extraordinary items and income taxes. With retained earnings having built up to JPY 1,091,038K, we will also watch for any dividend or shareholder return policy announcement.
- Key Metrics: Full-year Net Income achievement rate vs. plan (plan of JPY 7.4M; *per the September 1, 2026 guidance revision announcement); year-end Dividend (FY09/2026 forecast: JPY 0.00) and any disclosure on shareholder return policy.
Key Timely Disclosures During the Period
- 2026/09/14"Makuake" AI Gadgets & Home Appliances: 1H 2026 Total Support Purchases Exceed Full-Year Total for Last Year – This points to expanding demand in the priority AI gadgets and home appliances category, supporting the sustainability of GMV and project ticket sizes from 4Q onward.
- 2026/09/01Notice Regarding Revision of Full-Year Guidance – FY09/2026 guidance was revised upward to Revenue of JPY 5,850M and Operating Income of JPY 860M. The revision reflects large project wins in home appliances and gadgets and growth in ancillary services such as ad placement agency. Achievement against the revised plan will be the focus of the full-year results.
- 2026/08/26Support Purchase Service "Makuake" Marks 13th Anniversary; Gadgets, Home Appliances and Audio Categories Grow 170% YoY Combined – The company disclosed cumulative support purchases surpassing JPY 130B and strong growth in priority categories. This provides supporting evidence for reading 4Q GMV YoY.
Previous Quarter Results (FY09/2026 3Q Actual)
The company operates a single-segment business centered on its support purchase service "Makuake," connecting project creators (businesses) with project supporters (consumers). Ancillary services, including ad placement agency, Makuake STORE for EC mall storefront agency, Makuake Insight and Makuake SHOP, support creators' business growth. This model expands GMV through both project count and ticket size. In 9M, the acquisition of high-quality creators in home appliances and gadgets and curator support for higher ticket sizes paid off, delivering top-line growth and margin expansion simultaneously.
| Item | Amount | YoY | vs. Company Plan | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 4,392M | +31.1% | - | GMV of JPY 17,014,305K (+31.1%); creation of large projects and wider use of ad placement agency services |
| Operating Income | JPY 844M | +101.0% | - | OPM of 19.2% (12.5% a year earlier; our estimate); Revenue +31.1% vs. SG&A +12.0% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 848M | +100.2% | - | Non-operating income of JPY 4,592K (including subsidy income of JPY 3,300K) |
| Quarterly Net Income | JPY 683M | +77.3% | - | Impairment loss of JPY 50,790K booked as an extraordinary loss; total income taxes of JPY 113,883K |
| EPS | JPY 53.64 | +77.3% | - | Diluted EPS of JPY 53.49 |
Progress vs. Full-Year Plan (Recurring Profit Basis): 106.1–126.6% (our estimate vs. the JPY 670–800M full-year plan in the earnings release; the prior-year equivalent was 89.2% of the full-year actual of JPY 475M, our estimate). Note that a revision to full-year guidance was announced on September 1, 2026.
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