Key Positives From The Results
Cumulative 3Q operating income came in at JPY 844M (+101.0% YoY), doubling year-over-year, and has already surpassed the full-year guidance ceiling of JPY 800M at the 3Q mark. Quarterly GMV reached an all-time high of JPY 6,216M, with project ASP rising to JPY 1.88M (+22.2% YoY) as the primary driver of top-line growth. SG&A growth remained contained relative to revenue expansion, signaling the onset of meaningful operating leverage.
- 3Q Standalone GMV: JPY 6,216M (+27.2% YoY), a quarterly all-time high. Successive creation of record-breaking projects (XGIMI "Elfin Flip," Rokid AI glasses) contributed significantly
- Cumulative 3Q OPM: 19.2% (+6.7pt YoY). Cumulative gross margin declined to 73.0% from 75.5% YoY (▲2.5pt), primarily due to mix shift from expanding ad distribution agency services, though gross profit in absolute terms rose +26.8%
- Monthly Project ASP: JPY 1.88M (+22.2% YoY), a new all-time high. Enhanced curator support for large-scale projects and increased utilization of ad distribution agency services drove ASP expansion
- Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba Store: Won "Rakuten Shop of the Month" with 400+ listed products. Growth-domain sales support is now delivering tangible results
- Access UU: 11.87M (+32.6% YoY); registered members 3.54M (+11.4% YoY). Large-scale projects are serving as entry points for improved platform traffic acquisition
Key Concerns From The Results
3Q standalone gross margin of 72.4% was the lowest over the trailing four quarters. The rising revenue mix from ad distribution agency services could exert structural downward pressure on the take rate. Additionally, dependence on large-scale projects is increasing, making sustainability and repeatability a key focus area.
- Take Rate: 27.9% (vs. 29.1% in the prior quarter, ▲1.3pt YoY). Attributed to fee adjustments for mega-scale projects, but if this becomes persistent, profitability implications are a concern
- Backer Purchase Transactions: 332,336 (▲6.5% YoY). While GMV grew on higher ASPs, transaction volume declined, flagging a risk of lower purchase frequency per supporter
- Creator Repeat Rate: 60.9% (▲1.1pt YoY); repeat backer purchase rate 71.6% (▲2.4pt YoY). New user acquisition is progressing, but strengthening the repeat engagement structure is being carried over to subsequent fiscal years
- Impairment Loss: JPY 50M booked (vs. JPY 4M in the prior year). Combined with a JPY 168M decline in intangible assets, recoverability of development investments warrants attention
- 4Q Front-Loaded Investment Carryover: Some investments originally planned for 4Q were deferred from 3Q, and 4Q operating income is expected to land near the prior-year level (~JPY 27M)
Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward
- Repeatability Of Large-Scale Projects: Whether projects in the several-hundred-million-JPY range (Rokid/XGIMI class) can be consistently generated is key to sustaining project ASP. Quantitative visibility into the pipeline should be confirmed
- Growth & Plan Domains: Revenue contribution from Makuake STORE for EC Malls and Makuake Insight remains below 5% of total revenue. The pace of transition to recurring revenue streams and the timing of meaningful earnings contribution need to be assessed
- Mid-Term Plan Pulled Forward: Management has indicated potential achievement of the mid-term plan (FY09/2025–FY09/2027) one year ahead of schedule. Quantitative targets for the next mid-term plan and M&A strategy will be key catalysts for valuation going forward
- Quantitative outlook for the revenue mix trajectory of ad distribution agency services and the resulting impact on take rate
- Sustainability of project ASP expansion and current status of the large-scale project pipeline
- Disclosure policy for Makuake Insight's paid subscriber count and ARR
- Timeline to breakeven for Makuake STORE for EC Malls and medium-term GMV targets
- Progress on TikTok Shop integration and specific timeline for overseas EC expansion
- Supporter activation measures in light of continued YoY declines in backer purchase transactions
- Detailed breakdown of 4Q front-loaded investments and quantification of expected returns
- Quantitative range for revenue and operating income in the next mid-term plan
- Identification of assets underlying the JPY 50M impairment loss and assessment of additional impairment risk
- Timeline for considering dividend initiation and any revision to the shareholder return policy
Key Financial Highlights
| Item | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| GMV | JPY 17,014M | +31.1% |
| Revenue | JPY 4,392M | +31.1% |
| Cost of Goods Sold | JPY 1,185M | +44.6% |
| Gross Profit | JPY 3,206M | +26.8% |
| SG&A | JPY 2,362M | +12.0% |
| Operating Income | JPY 844M | +101.0% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 848M | +100.2% |
| Quarterly Net Income | JPY 683M | +77.3% |
| EPS | JPY 53.64 | +77.3% |
| Diluted EPS | JPY 53.49 | +77.2% |
| Monthly Active Projects | 1,055 | +2.5% |
| Monthly Project ASP | JPY 1.88M | +22.2% |
| Take Rate (3Q Standalone) | 27.9% | ▲1.3pt |
Revenue and operating income posted robust growth of 30%+ and 100%+ YoY, respectively. COGS growth outpacing revenue is attributable to mix shift (expansion of ad distribution agency services), but with SG&A growth contained at +12.0%, operating leverage was clearly visible.
Performance By Business Segment
The company operates under a single reportable segment—the Backer Purchase Service business—and does not provide segment-level disclosure. The service portfolio comprises Makuake (Debut) as the core, with ancillary services including ad distribution agency, Makuake STORE / STORE for EC Malls (Growth), and Makuake Insight (Plan). Ad distribution agency revenue was JPY 322M in 3Q standalone (+51.9% YoY), accounting for approximately 20% of total revenue, on an expanding trend.
Segment Performance Table
| Segment | Revenue | YoY | Operating Income | YoY | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backer Purchase Service (Consolidated) | JPY 4,392M | +31.1% | JPY 844M | +101.0% | 19.2% |
- Ad Distribution Agency: 3Q standalone revenue of JPY 322M (+28.3% QoQ). Driven by increased utilization among large-scale project creators; a key contributor to higher project ASP
- AI Gadgets / Advanced Home Electronics: Record-breaking projects in succession—Rokid AI glasses (JPY 640M) and XGIMI Elfin Flip (JPY 770M)—directly lifted project ASP to JPY 1.88M
- Makuake STORE For EC Malls: Rakuten Ichiba store won "Rakuten Shop of the Month" with 400+ listed products. Product listings also commenced on "Diggly," a dedicated page within Rakuten Ichiba
- Transaction-Based Backer Purchases: 3Q standalone at 332,336 transactions (▲6.5% YoY). The flip side of rising ASPs is declining transaction volume, with small- and mid-sized projects struggling to gain traction
Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance
Cumulative 3Q revenue progress of 81.3% is tracking well ahead of the full-year plan. Operating income has already exceeded the full-year guidance ceiling of JPY 800M, and while management plans to ramp up front-loaded investments in 4Q, exceeding the upper bound appears highly probable. Compared to prior-year 3Q cumulative progress rates (revenue 73.2%, operating income 93.9%), this year is tracking materially ahead, and full-year target achievement appears virtually certain.
| Item | Value (3Q Cumulative) | Full-Year Forecast | Progress Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 4,392M | JPY 5,400M | 81.3% |
| Operating Income | JPY 844M | JPY 670–800M | 105.6–126.0% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 848M | JPY 670–800M | 106.0–126.6% |
| Net Income | JPY 683M | JPY 590–700M | 97.6–115.8% |
- Consumer electronics and gadget projects tend to see active listings in 4Q (Jul–Sep) ahead of the year-end shopping season, and 4Q GMV typically remains at elevated levels. However, in the current fiscal year, the concentration of front-loaded investments in 4Q is expected to keep operating income near the prior-year level (~JPY 27M)
Changes To Guidance
No guidance revision was issued at the time of this 3Q earnings release. The company maintained its revised forecasts announced on April 28, 2026 (revenue JPY 5,400M, operating income JPY 670–800M). Although cumulative 3Q operating income has already exceeded the full-year guidance ceiling, management elected not to revise given planned front-loaded investments in 4Q (including portions deferred from 3Q).
Commentary On Shareholder Returns
The FY09/2026 dividend forecast remains at JPY 0.00 per share (no dividend), unchanged. The company continues to prioritize retained earnings given its growth phase, directing resources toward business expansion and profitability enhancement. The timing for initiating dividends remains undetermined.
Financial Position
The company maintains a virtually debt-free balance sheet with a healthy equity ratio of 67.1%. While total assets expanded due to increased project escrow deposits, this was offset by a corresponding increase in deposits received, leaving the underlying financial position stable.
- Key Figures
- Leverage Metrics
| Item | Value | Additional Information |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and Deposits | JPY 5,460M | +JPY 804M vs. prior FYE (+17.3%) |
| Project Escrow Deposits | JPY 2,166M | +JPY 853M vs. prior FYE (+65.0%) |
| Accounts Receivable | JPY 613M | +JPY 113M vs. prior FYE (+22.8%) |
| Total Current Assets | JPY 8,357M | +JPY 1,767M vs. prior FYE |
| Total Non-Current Assets | JPY 679M | ▲JPY 179M vs. prior FYE |
| └ Intangible Assets | JPY 562M | ▲JPY 168M vs. prior FYE |
| Total Assets | JPY 9,037M | +JPY 1,588M vs. prior FYE (+21.3%) |
| Deposits Received | JPY 2,181M | +JPY 870M vs. prior FYE (+66.4%) |
| Shareholders' Equity | JPY 6,061M | +JPY 683M vs. prior FYE (+12.7%) |
| EBITDA | JPY 998M | Operating income JPY 844M + D&A JPY 154M |
News Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement
None
Major Announcements During The Quarter
- 2026/05/29Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba store won the April 2026 "Rakuten Shop of the Month" in the Outdoor & Leisure category. Over 400 listed products, with sales growing several tens of times since store launch Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba Store Wins April 2026 "Rakuten Shop of the Month" in the Outdoor & Leisure Category!
- 2026/06/01Rokid Smart AI Glasses raised JPY 640M in backer purchases, reclaiming Makuake's all-time #1 record for the first time in approximately five years Rokid Smart AI Glasses by Rokid inc., a Global Leader in AI Glasses, Surpasses JPY 636.73M, Setting a New All-Time Makuake Backer Purchase Record
- 2026/06/25Partnered with SB C&S to host experiential pop-up "Makuake GINZA TOUCH LOUNGE" at SoftBank Ginza from July 9–17 Makuake and SB C&S to Host Experiential Pop-Up "Makuake GINZA TOUCH LOUNGE" at SoftBank Ginza from July 9–17
- 2026/06/30XGIMI "Elfin Flip 4K" and "Elfin Flip Laser" surpassed JPY 640M+ in backer purchases, reclaiming Makuake's all-time #1 record again. Reached JPY 50M within one hour and JPY 200M within 24 hours of launch XGIMI Home Projectors "Elfin Flip 4K" and "Elfin Flip Laser" Surpass JPY 636.88M in Total Backer Purchases, Setting a New All-Time Makuake Record
Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year
None
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