Summary
On a 1H cumulative basis, revenue reached 52.1% of full-year guidance and operating income hit 84.8% of the lower end of the guidance range, with 1H earnings momentum tracking above expectations. 3Q marks the timing when large-scale gadget projects—which consecutively broke all-time records—begin to contribute meaningfully to GMV, making the pace of GMV growth acceleration the single most important checkpoint. On the other hand, the company has explicitly stated its intention to front-load growth investments in H2 to achieve its mid-term management plan targets ahead of schedule, so on the earnings side, investors need to assess where the timing and scale of investment execution will land within the guidance range. Whether multi-layered platform monetization—including curator-driven ASP enhancement, channel expansion via Makuake STORE for EC Malls, and ad placement agency services—is progressing on both "volume" and "quality" dimensions will be the key to gauging growth sustainability.
Key Points for Next Quarter
| Key Points & Focus | Implications |
|---|---|
GMV GrowthYoY growth rate of 3Q cumulative GMV | 1H cumulative GMV was JPY 10,797M, +33.5% YoY. With all-time record-breaking projects from Rokid and XGIMI flowing into 3Q recognition, confirmation of sustained growth above +30% would expand the upside potential beyond the full-year revenue plan of JPY 5.4B |
Project ASPTrend in average support purchase amount per project | In 2Q, ASP improved through expanded use of curator support and ad placement agency services. Key to monitor whether the rising mix of high-ASP gadget projects continues, including any genre concentration risk |
Ancillary Service RevenueRevenue mix from ad placement agency and Makuake STORE for EC Malls | Ad placement agency services are driving revenue growth. The ramp-up of the EC mall business—evidenced by the Rakuten store's award—serves as a progress indicator for revenue diversification |
Growth Investment ExecutionYoY change in SG&A and OPM | 1H cumulative OPM was 20.2% (vs. 12.8% in the prior-year period). With the company's stated policy of concentrating growth investments in H2, the magnitude of 3Q standalone SG&A increase and resulting margin level will be the watershed for where full-year OP lands within the JPY 670–800M guidance range |
Capital Efficiency / Mid-Term Plan ProgressROE level and mid-term management plan KPI disclosure | Against shareholders' equity of JPY 5,861M at 2Q-end and annual net income of JPY 590–700M, our estimated ROE is 10.1%–11.9%. Investment policy toward early achievement of the mid-term plan and the direction of shareholder returns also warrant attention |
Large-Scale Project PipelineAcquisition trends for all-time top projects and new genre development | In June, all-time #1 records were consecutively broken by Rokid then XGIMI. Against rising gadget dependence, the acquisition of quality projects in other genres such as food and apparel serves as a gauge of platform breadth expansion |
Key Issues from Previous Results (FY09/2026 2Q)
1H cumulative revenue came in at JPY 2,812M (+37.2%) and operating income at JPY 568M (+117.2%), tracking well ahead of the initial full-year plan. The company revised up its full-year guidance, disclosing operating income in a range format (JPY 670–800M). A strategic investment policy for H2 aimed at early achievement of the mid-term management plan was laid out, making "the balance between growth investment and profitability" the central debate from 3Q onward.
1. GMV Growth Sustainability and Genre Mix
- Previous Quarter: 1H cumulative GMV of JPY 10,797M (+33.5% YoY), led by consumer electronics & gadgets
- This Quarter Checkpoint: Standalone 3Q GMV growth rate and changes in genre mix
- Key Metric: Whether 3Q cumulative YoY GMV growth sustains above +30%
2. OPM and Scale of H2 Growth Investments
- Previous Quarter: 1H cumulative OP of JPY 568M, OPM 20.2% (vs. 12.8% in prior-year period)
- This Quarter Checkpoint: 3Q standalone SG&A increase and OPM level
- Key Metric: 3Q cumulative progress rate against full-year OP guidance of JPY 670–800M (our estimate implies H2 OP of JPY 102–232M)
3. Revenue Contribution from Ad Placement Agency Services
- Previous Quarter: Revenue growth (+37.2%) exceeded GMV growth (+33.5%) driven by expanded ad placement agency usage
- This Quarter Checkpoint: Utilization rate and take rate trends for ad placement agency services
- Key Metric: Spread between revenue growth and GMV growth (our estimate: 1H cumulative take rate ~26.0% vs. ~25.4% in the prior-year period)
4. Makuake STORE for EC Malls Business Expansion
- Previous Quarter: Rakuten Ichiba store won the "Rakuten Shop of the Month" award in the Outdoor & Leisure category
- This Quarter Checkpoint: Revenue scale and product count expansion pace of the EC mall business
- Key Metric: EC mall-sourced revenue as a share of total revenue, and conversion rate from project completion to continued sales
5. Financial Foundation and Cash Generation
- Previous Quarter: Operating CF JPY 809M (+JPY 517M YoY), investing CF negative JPY 24M
- This Quarter Checkpoint: Specific allocation areas for H2 growth investments (talent, marketing, system development, etc.)
- Key Metric: 3Q cumulative operating CF level and free cash flow trajectory
Timely Disclosure & Industry Trends
- 2026/06/30XGIMI home projector broke the all-time support purchase record at JPY 636.88M — A consecutive all-time #1 record following Rokid in the same month; the GMV uplift from high-ASP gadget projects is expected to directly contribute to 3Q earnings. XGIMI "Elfin Flip 4K" and "Elfin Flip Laser" home projectors surpass JPY 636.88M in total support purchases, setting a new all-time record on Makuake
- 2026/06/25Announcement of experiential pop-up "Makuake GINZA TOUCH LOUNGE" with SB C&S — A gadget hands-on event at SoftBank Ginza, advancing the OMO strategy from online support purchases to offline experiential and channel expansion. Experiential pop-up "Makuake GINZA TOUCH LOUNGE" to be held by Makuake and SB C&S at SoftBank Ginza from July 9–17
- 2026/06/01Rokid Smart AI Glasses broke the all-time support purchase record at JPY 636.73M — A large-scale project attracting 7,413 supporters. Achieving the all-time #1 in the new AI glasses category suggests potential for expansion into technology verticals beyond traditional gadgets. Rokid inc., the global leading company in AI glasses, breaks the all-time Makuake support purchase record with "Rokid Smart AI Glasses" surpassing JPY 636.73M
- 2026/05/29Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba store won "Rakuten Shop of the Month" — Revenue has grown several tens of times from launch, with 400+ products listed. This validates the growth trajectory of the post-Makuake continued sales support business. Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba store wins "Rakuten Shop of the Month" for April 2026 in the Outdoor & Leisure category!
Previous Quarter Results (FY09/2026 2Q Actuals)
Makuake operates a test-marketing platform for new products and services under its "support purchase" concept. The platform matches project owners (businesses) with supporters (consumers), deriving primary revenue from commissions linked to GMV. Ancillary services include ad placement agency, the trust & safety system, Makuake STORE, Makuake STORE for EC Malls, Makuake Insight, and Makuake SHOP, driving multi-layered platform monetization. Concurrent with the 2Q earnings release, the company revised up its full-year guidance, with operating income raised significantly by +67.5% to +100.0% vs. the initial plan.
| Item | Amount | YoY | vs. Company Plan | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 2,812M | +37.2% | 52.1% achievement rate | Led by consumer electronics & gadget projects and ad placement agency |
| Operating Income | JPY 568M | +117.2% | 71.0%–84.8% achievement rate | Driven by ▲6.8pt SG&A ratio improvement |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 568M | +116.4% | 71.0%–84.8% achievement rate | Non-operating items were immaterial |
| Interim Net Income | JPY 483M | +95.4% | 69.1%–81.9% achievement rate | Impairment loss of JPY 20M recorded |
| EPS | JPY 37.96 | +95.3% | - | - |
Guidance Achievement Rate (Revenue): 52.1% (achievement rate vs. prior-year full-year actuals: 44.8% per our estimate)
Company Information
- Company Name: Makuake, Inc.
- Ticker: 4479
- Listed Market: Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market
- Fiscal Year-End: September
- Core Business: Planning, development, and operation of the "Makuake" support purchase platform; ancillary services including ad placement agency, Makuake Insight, and Makuake STORE for EC Malls
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