Makuake, Inc. 2Q Earnings Flash

GMV +33.5% and operating income more than doubled, driving rapid earnings expansion; full-year guidance raised to record-high levels

PublishedApril 28, 2026 at 20:15 GMT+9

Key Positives From The Results

Cumulative revenue reached JPY 2,812M (+37.2% YoY) and operating income JPY 568M (+117.2% YoY), with double-digit growth across all line items. GMV expanded to JPY 10,797M (+33.5% YoY), with rising project ASP and growth in advertising agency services driving margin improvement.

  • GMV
    of JPY 10,797M (+33.5% YoY) with monthly project ASP of JPY 1.63M (+17.8% YoY), clearly demonstrating an ASP-led growth structure
  • OPM
    at 20.2% (cumulative) and 17.4% on a standalone 2Q basis, confirming firmly entrenched profitability. Already exceeded the initial full-year plan of JPY 400M with JPY 568M in 1H alone
  • Take Rate
    maintained at a high 29.1% (2Q standalone). Ad distribution agency revenue expanded to JPY 251M (2Q standalone), with accelerating earnings contribution from ancillary services
  • Full-Year Guidance Raised
    (revenue JPY 5,400M / operating income JPY 670–800M), now targeting record-high results. Mid-term plan targets have largely come within achievable range
  • Operating CF
    of JPY 809M (vs. JPY 291M in the prior-year period), demonstrating strengthened cash generation; cash and cash equivalents at JPY 6,754M reflect an ample cash position

Key Concerns From The Results

On a QoQ basis, standalone 2Q revenue of JPY 1,349M (−7.8% QoQ) and operating income of JPY 234M (−29.9% QoQ) showed seasonal deceleration. The company plans JPY 300–400M of upfront investment over the full year, and the range format of the profit guidance (JPY 670–800M) warrants attention as a source of uncertainty.

  • Gross Profit Margin
    at 73.3% (2Q standalone), down −2.6pt from 75.9% in the year-ago period. Rising share of ad distribution agency revenue is structurally weighing on margins through higher COGS
  • Project Owner Repeat Rate
    at 59.3% (−2.4pt YoY) and
    Repeat Backer Purchase Rate
    at 70.7% (−2.6pt YoY)—repeat metrics declining on both sides
  • New Project Listings
    at 1,224 (2Q standalone), essentially flat at −0.8% YoY. Limited growth in project volume poses risk given the ASP-dependent growth structure
  • Intangible Assets
    declined to JPY 636M (from JPY 730M at prior FY-end, −JPY 93M). An impairment loss of JPY 20M was also recorded, warranting scrutiny of development investment recoverability
  • Upfront Investment
    of JPY 300–400M planned for business growth and organizational development over the full year; the JPY 130M spread between the profit guidance floor (JPY 670M) and ceiling (JPY 800M) is wide

Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward

  • Breakdown and timing of full-year upfront investment of JPY 300–400M.
    The allocation among personnel costs, development expenses, and advertising spend will drive 3Q+ profit levels, making it critical to track investment progress and the timing of returns
  • Sustainability of monthly project ASP at JPY 1.63M.
    High dependency on large-ticket consumer electronics/gadget projects raises the risk of GMV volatility if category concentration persists
  • Revenue contribution from new services
    such as Makuake STORE for EC Malls and Makuake Insight (Plan/Growth phases of the PDG cycle). The buildup of recurring revenue streams is key to achieving the mid-term plan targets of JPY 5.2B revenue / JPY 700M operating income
Discussion Points For Management
  • Detailed cost-category breakdown and prioritization of the JPY 300–400M full-year upfront investment
  • Take rate and margin profile of ad distribution agency services and the forward trajectory
  • Root-cause analysis of declining project owner repeat rate (59.3%) and specific remediation measures
  • Current number of client adoptions and revenue scale for Makuake Insight and Makuake STORE for EC Malls
  • Potential for monthly project ASP uplift to spread beyond consumer electronics/gadgets into other categories
  • Timeline and approach for revising mid-term plan targets (FY09/2027: revenue JPY 5.2B / operating income JPY 700M)
  • Progress on TikTok Shop integration and acquisition of overseas project owners
  • Store expansion plans and revenue impact of "Makuake SHOP" brick-and-mortar partnerships with Nojima and others
  • Hiring plan for headcount (158 employees, +8 QoQ) and productivity metrics
  • Timeline for considering dividend initiation and any revisions to the shareholder return policy

Key Financial Highlights

ItemValueYoY
GMVJPY 10,797M+33.5%
RevenueJPY 2,812M+37.2%
Cost of Goods SoldJPY 749M+55.8%
Gross ProfitJPY 2,063M+31.5%
SG&AJPY 1,494M+14.3%
Operating IncomeJPY 568M+117.2%
Recurring ProfitJPY 568M+116.4%
Net Income Before Tax (Interim)JPY 548M+101.2%
Net Income (Interim)JPY 483M+95.4%
EPSJPY 37.96+95.3%
Diluted EPSJPY 37.86+95.3%
Monthly Active Projects1,005+2.8%
Monthly Project ASPJPY 1.63M+17.8%
Take Rate (2Q Standalone)29.1%+0.9pt

COGS growth (+55.8%) outpaced revenue growth (+37.2%), reflecting the rising share of ad distribution agency revenue pushing up the cost ratio. Meanwhile, SG&A growth was contained at +14.3%, with operating leverage from top-line growth contributing to the sharp increase in operating income.

Performance By Business Segment

SegmentRevenueYoYOperating IncomeYoYMargin
Crowdfunding Support Service (Consolidated)JPY 2,812M+37.2%JPY 568M+117.2%20.2%
Strong Performers
  • Ad Distribution Agency Services: JPY 251M in standalone 2Q (+55.0% YoY). Enhanced curator support drove increased adoption among project owners seeking to maximize crowdfunding contributions
  • Consumer Electronics/Gadgets Category: AI-powered products (smart AI glasses, AI tennis machines, etc.) drove GMV growth. Total crowdfunding contributions for AI-related products surged 3.5x YoY and backer count grew 3.3x YoY
  • Makuake STORE For EC Malls: Expansion to Rakuten Ichiba, Yahoo! Shopping, and TikTok Shop. Launch of listings on Rakuten Ichiba's new dedicated page "Diggly" is extending visibility in the general retail phase
Underperformers
  • New Project Listings: 1,224 in standalone 2Q (−0.8% YoY), showing limited momentum. Repeat project owner listings fell to 726 (−4.7% YoY), with strong new client acquisition barely maintaining flat overall volume
  • Makuake STORE (Proprietary EC): No detailed revenue disclosure, but the declining gross margin trend (73.3% vs. 75.9% in the year-ago period) is primarily attributable to the rising share of ad distribution agency revenue, suggesting a relative shrinkage in the share of the higher-margin core Makuake platform

Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance

Revenue progress stands at JPY 2,812M against the full-year plan of JPY 5,400M (52.1% achievement), tracking solidly. Operating income already exceeded the initial plan of JPY 400M at JPY 568M (142.1%). Against the midpoint of the revised guidance (JPY 735M), progress is at a high 77.3%; however, JPY 300–400M of upfront investment is planned for the full year, and profit recognition is expected to be suppressed in 2H.

ItemValue (2Q Cumulative)Full-Year ForecastProgress Rate
GMVJPY 10,797MJPY 20,700M52.2%
RevenueJPY 2,812MJPY 5,400M52.1%
Operating IncomeJPY 568MJPY 670–800M71.0%–84.8%
Recurring ProfitJPY 568MJPY 670–800M71.0%–84.8%
Net IncomeJPY 483MJPY 590–700M69.0%–81.9%
  • 2Q (January–March) has fewer business days, and GMV/revenue tend to decline QoQ. Historical data confirms seasonal revenue declines of roughly −5% to −10% from 1Q to 2Q
  • Recovery typically begins from 3Q (April–June) onward with increased business days

Changes To Guidance

The company revised guidance upward versus the initial forecast published on October 28, 2025. All line items were raised, reflecting strong GMV trends and disciplined cost management. Profit guidance is presented in a range format to incorporate variability depending on the scale of strategic upfront investment over the full year.

  • Revenue:
    Prior JPY 4,763M → Revised JPY 5,400M (+13.4%)
  • Operating Income:
    Prior JPY 400M → Revised JPY 670–800M (+67.5% to +100.0%)
  • Recurring Profit:
    Prior JPY 403M → Revised JPY 670–800M (+66.3% to +98.5%)
  • Net Income:
    Prior JPY 355M → Revised JPY 590–700M (+66.2% to +97.2%)
  • Reasons For Revision:
    Consumer electronics/gadget category projects drove GMV growth; expansion of ancillary service revenue centered on ad distribution agency services; thorough and disciplined cost management

Commentary On Shareholder Returns

The FY09/2026 dividend forecast remains unchanged at JPY 0.00 per share (no dividend). The company prioritizes retaining earnings for investment in business expansion given its growth phase. The timing for dividend initiation remains undetermined.

Financial Position

The company maintains a virtually debt-free balance sheet with an equity ratio of 71.3%, a high level. Cash and cash equivalents of JPY 6,754M ensure ample liquidity, and the financial structure is capable of self-funding the full-year upfront investment.

  • Key Figures
  • Leverage Metrics
ItemValueAdditional Information
Cash and Cash EquivalentsJPY 6,754M+JPY 785M vs. prior FY-end (+13.2%)
Cash and DepositsJPY 5,070M+JPY 414M vs. prior FY-end
Escrow Deposits for ProjectsJPY 1,684M+JPY 370M vs. prior FY-end
Total AssetsJPY 8,226M+JPY 777M vs. prior FY-end (+10.4%)
Shareholders' EquityJPY 5,861M+JPY 483M vs. prior FY-end (+9.0%)
Interest-Bearing DebtJPY 0MDebt-free
Operating CFJPY 809MJPY 291M in the prior-year period
Investing CF−JPY 24M−JPY 113M in the prior-year period
Intangible AssetsJPY 636M−JPY 93M from JPY 730M at prior FY-end
EBITDAJPY 670MOperating income JPY 568M + D&A JPY 102M

News Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement

  • 2026/04/20
    Exhibited at "Spring Headphone Festival 2026," offering product display and audition opportunities for Makuake-listed projects Appearing at "Spring Headphone Festival 2026" on Saturday, April 25!

Major Announcements During The Quarter

  • 2026/04/22
    Began listing "Makuake STORE Rakuten Ichiba Shop" products within Rakuten Ichiba's new dedicated page "Diggly," presenting them in a story-driven context. A channel expansion initiative for the general retail phase Makuake partners with Rakuten to propose a new shopping experience centered on "discovery and empathy"
  • 2026/04/15
    Added AI functionality to "Makuake Insight," which organizes and extracts product development ideas from behavioral data, backer comments, and other inputs. Strengthens the Plan phase of the PDG cycle Makuake adds AI functionality to new product development support tool "Makuake Insight"
  • 2026/04/13
    Publicly announced enhancement of the "PDG Cycle"—Plan, Debut, Growth—a framework for circulating products through each phase. Clarified the expansion of support capabilities aimed at helping products "endure" in the general retail market Makuake deepens its "PDG Cycle"
  • 2026/02/19
    Launched "Makuake Corners" at two Nojima stores in the Greater Tokyo area, connecting online-originated new products with in-store experiential retail Crowdfunding support service "Makuake" partners with Nojima to create in-store product experience opportunities

Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year

No new filings of large-shareholding reports or amendment reports were identified in the period from April 2025 to April 2026. None applicable.

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