ENVALITH

MFS, Inc. Full-Year Earnings Flash

Confirmed INVASE buy-and-resell model achieved full-year profitability and Moge Check profitability improved with CPA halved; focus now shifts to expansion into owner-occupier real estate brokerage via CAPS launch

PublishedAugust 13, 2026 at 17:40 GMT+9

Key Positives From The Results

The INVASE business completed its structural shift from brokerage to buy-and-resell, achieving its first full-year profit. The Moge Check business also reached record-high profitability metrics with CPA down 56% and ROAS of 476%. Simultaneous profitability in both segments underpins higher-quality consolidated earnings for the second consecutive year, with operating income finishing 11.1% above guidance.

  • INVASE contract volume reached 678 deals (+97.7% YoY), with the buy-and-resell model now firmly established, delivering full-year segment profit of JPY 58M — the first annual profit on record
  • Moge Check CPA fell 56% YoY, with the ad spend ratio declining to 21%, pushing margin (revenue minus advertising expenses) to an all-time high
  • Recognition of JPY 129M in deferred tax assets resulted in a JPY -93M total income tax adjustment, contributing to net income of JPY 308M (+92.8% YoY) — a significant upside driver
  • FY06/2027 guidance calls for operating income of JPY 371M (+67.0% YoY), with planned entry into owner-occupier real estate brokerage centered on CAPS
  • Capital policy actions including new share issuance and capital reduction expanded capital surplus, accelerating the elimination of accumulated losses in retained earnings

Key Concerns From The Results

Moge Check revenue declined to JPY 1,251M (-36.8% YoY), with financial institutions continuing to curtail advertising budgets amid rising interest rates — a structural headwind. The INVASE business saw volatility inherent in the buy-and-resell model materialize as a challenge, with changes to bank underwriting criteria in Q3 causing some deals to slip into the next fiscal year, leaving INVASE below its full-year budget.

  • Moge Check revenue declined 36.8% YoY, with registered users falling to 121K (-9.7% YoY), indicating a deceleration in customer acquisition
  • OPM compressed to 2.7% (vs. 8.3% prior year), primarily driven by higher COGS ratio from INVASE buy-and-resell activity (COGS JPY 6,405M, +756.1% YoY)
  • Operating cash flow of JPY -1,015M, with working capital ballooning from a JPY 1,328M buildup in real estate held for sale (+JPY 1,247M YoY)
  • Interest-bearing debt of JPY 910M emerged (from zero in the prior year), with equity ratio declining 17.1pp to 70.6% (from 87.7%)
  • INVASE segment margin of just 0.8% leaves limited cushion, raising questions about resilience in a real estate market downturn

Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward

  • Timeline for CAPS owner-occupier brokerage service to reach revenue contribution, and quantitative outlook for cross-sell synergies with Moge Check and INVASE. Progress toward achieving "intra-CAPS transactions" by Q4 FY06/2027 is critical
  • Commercialization schedule for Moge Check's financial institution API integration and MCP development, and likelihood of reaching the target of 100 real estate companies as users. Reducing dependence on financial institution ad spend is the key to top-line recovery
  • Inventory turnover efficiency on the JPY 1,328M real estate held for sale, and risk management framework for sourcing in a rising rate environment. Repayment plan for JPY 910M in borrowings and working capital management policy
Discussion Points For Management
  • Differentiation strategy for CAPS owner-occupier brokerage versus established major real estate brokerage players
  • Specifics of the monetization model via Moge Check MCP (pricing structure, unit economics)
  • Inventory turnover day targets for real estate held for sale and stop-loss rules in the event of a market downturn
  • Segment disclosure policy following the INVASE business reorganization (succession to Condominium subsidiary in October 2026)
  • Number of partner banks targeted for API integration and directional outlook for unit pricing after the execution-based fee model is established
  • Pricing model for the real estate company dashboard (SaaS vs. performance-based)
  • Upper-bound target for real estate held for sale in FY06/2027 and associated funding plan
  • Ongoing cost of maintaining CAPS price index accuracy and sustainability of precision advantage versus competing AI valuation services
  • Concrete synergy details and future roadmap from the capital-business alliance with Zenkoku Hosho
  • Indicative timeline for a potential dividend policy review

Key Financial Highlights

ItemValueYoY
RevenueJPY 8,317M+185.0%
Cost of Goods SoldJPY 6,405M+756.1%
Gross ProfitJPY 1,912M-11.9%
SG&AJPY 1,689M-14.4%
Operating IncomeJPY 222M+12.7%
Recurring ProfitJPY 215M+8.6%
Net Income Attributable to Owners of Parent CompanyJPY 308M+92.8%
EPSJPY 31.99+81.4%
Diluted EPSJPY 31.95+82.4%
Comprehensive IncomeJPY 309M+93.8%
ROE12.2%+4.7pp
Recurring Profit / Total Assets6.6%-1.4pp
OPM2.7%-5.6pp
BPSJPY 277.37+13.3%

The +185.0% YoY revenue increase is primarily attributable to the gross-up effect from INVASE's transition to a buy-and-resell model (recognizing total property transaction value). Adjusted for the gross-up, revenue was JPY 2,295M (-21.4% YoY). The significant net income outperformance of +104.5% versus guidance was driven by a JPY -95M income tax adjustment resulting from the recognition of JPY 129M in deferred tax assets.

Performance By Business Segment

The Moge Check business saw revenue stabilize as the impact from the shift in revenue recognition from "referral-based" to "execution-based" fees largely lapped from Q3 onward. Advertising expenses were cut 45% YoY, securing segment profit. The INVASE business saw revenue surge +654.5% YoY (+91.8% adjusted for gross-up) as the buy-and-resell model took hold, achieving its first full-year profit.

Segment Performance Table

SegmentRevenueYoYOperating IncomeYoYMargin
Moge CheckJPY 1,251M-36.8%JPY 164M-64.7%13.1%
INVASEJPY 7,066M+654.5%JPY 58MTurned profitable0.8%
Strong Performers
  • INVASE (Buy-And-Resell): 678 contracts (+97.7% YoY); inflation-driven asset price appreciation and a sourcing strategy focused on high-demand areas drove results. Expansion of rental management services enabled a one-stop offering
  • Moge Check (Advertising Efficiency): ROAS reached 476% (+265% YoY), with increased organic SEO traffic contributing to a 56% YoY reduction in CPA
Underperformers
  • Moge Check (Top Line): Revenue declined 36.8% YoY as online banks continued to pull back advertising budgets in the rising rate environment. Registered users fell to 121K (-9.7% YoY)
  • INVASE (Budget Attainment): Changes to bank underwriting criteria in Q3 caused deal delays and settlement slippage into the next fiscal year, resulting in a full-year budget miss. Volatility inherent in the buy-and-resell model remains a challenge

Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance

As these are full-year results, the progress rate concept does not apply. Against the revised guidance announced on May 14, 2026 (revenue JPY 8,092M, operating income JPY 200M), all line items exceeded targets: revenue at 102.8%, operating income at 111.1%, and net income at 204.5%. The significant net income outperformance was driven by the recognition of deferred tax assets.

ItemFull-Year ActualFull-Year Forecast (Revised 2026/5/14)Achievement Rate
RevenueJPY 8,317MJPY 8,092M102.8%
Operating IncomeJPY 222MJPY 200M111.1%
Recurring ProfitJPY 215MJPY 191M112.7%
Net IncomeJPY 308MJPY 150M204.5%
  • Moge Check: Mortgage demand peaks in the spring moving season (Jan–Mar) and falls off during Obon and year-end holidays. Revenue and operating income are expected to remain H2-weighted next fiscal year
  • INVASE: Real estate transactions tend to cluster around fiscal year-end and calendar year-end, while sourcing and sales slow during Obon and year-end. Next fiscal year is also planned to be H2-weighted, factoring in time required for organizational reinforcement

Next Fiscal Year Guidance

FY06/2027 guidance assumes higher INVASE transaction volumes, expanded loan services, and launch of owner-occupier brokerage via CAPS, projecting revenue +23.1% and operating income +67.0%. For Moge Check, a slight revenue decline is assumed given continued financial institution ad spend restraint, though operating income is projected at +23.7%.

  • Revenue: JPY 10,241M (+23.1%)
  • Operating Income: JPY 371M (+67.0%)
  • Recurring Profit: JPY 369M (+71.6%)
  • Net Income: JPY 368M (+19.3%)
  • EPS: JPY 36.11 (+12.9%)

Commentary On Shareholder Returns

The annual dividend for FY06/2026 is JPY 0 (unchanged from the prior year). The FY06/2027 forecast also calls for an annual dividend of JPY 0. Retained earnings remain in a deficit position at JPY -999M, and the timing for initiating dividends has not been determined.

Financial Position

The buildup of real estate held for sale (+JPY 1,247M) resulted in JPY 910M of newly incurred interest-bearing debt, with the equity ratio declining to 70.6% (from 87.7%). On the other hand, capital policy actions including new share issuance and capital reduction increased capital surplus by JPY +829M, narrowing the accumulated deficit in retained earnings to JPY -999M.

  • Key Figures
  • Leverage Metrics
ItemValueAdditional Information
Cash and DepositsJPY 1,905M+4.6% YoY
Real Estate Held for SaleJPY 1,328M+1,524.8% YoY
Total Current AssetsJPY 3,548M+58.2% YoY
Total Non-Current AssetsJPY 454M+56.3% YoY
Total AssetsJPY 4,008M+58.0% YoY
Interest-Bearing DebtJPY 910MNewly incurred from zero in prior year
└ Short-Term BorrowingsJPY 600M-
└ Current Portion of Long-Term DebtJPY 107M-
└ Long-Term DebtJPY 203M-
Shareholders' EquityJPY 2,828M+27.1% YoY
EBITDAJPY 250MOperating income JPY 222M + depreciation JPY 28M

News Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement

  • 2026/08/13
    Recognition of JPY 129M in deferred tax assets (income tax adjustment of JPY -95M) resulted in net income finishing +104.5% above guidance. Variances versus forecasts disclosed on both a consolidated and non-consolidated basis Notice Regarding Recognition of Deferred Tax Assets and Differences Between FY06/2026 Full-Year Earnings Forecast and Actual Results, and Differences from Prior Year Non-Consolidated Results
  • 2026/08/12
    CAPS AI valuation coverage expanded to 525 pre-completion new-build condominium buildings, strengthening the customer acquisition platform for owner-occupier transactions Condominium AI Valuation Service "CAPS" Expands Price Estimation Coverage to Pre-Completion New-Build Condominiums

Major Announcements During The Quarter

  • 2026/07/13
    Launched "CAPS," a free AI-powered condominium valuation service covering 146,000 buildings nationwide. Positioned as the starting point for creating an integrated proptech platform in conjunction with Moge Check and INVASE Launch of Real Estate AI Valuation Service "CAPS"
  • 2026/07/21
    Resolved to transfer the INVASE business to subsidiary Condominium via an absorption-type company split effective October 2026, aiming to consolidate investment property-related functions for greater efficiency Notice Regarding Succession of INVASE Business Through Intra-Group Reorganization (Company Split with Wholly Owned Subsidiary)
  • 2026/07/22
    Released the nationwide condominium price index "CAPS Index" free of charge. Enables market analysis by prefecture, building age, and other dimensions, accelerating data-driven service development Japan's First* Nationwide Condominium Price Index "CAPS Index" Based on AI Valuations of 146,000 Buildings Released Free of Charge
  • 2026/07/24
    Developed and released the Moge Check MCP server, enabling real-time access to mortgage information from AI agents such as Claude and Codex Mortgage Comparison Service "Moge Check" Develops MCP Server for AI Agents, Begins Providing Mortgage Information
  • 2026/05/14
    Upwardly revised FY06/2026 full-year guidance on the back of strong INVASE buy-and-resell performance, raising the revenue forecast from JPY 3,779M to JPY 8,092M Notice Regarding Revision of FY06/2026 Full-Year Earnings Forecast

Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year

  • Zenkoku Hosho: 0.0% → 10.0% (2026/01/08) — Held for the purpose of capital-business alliance with the issuer
  • Yui Capital Partners: 8.20% → 9.43% (2025/08/22) — Pure investment
  • Rakuten Securities: 6.27% → 5.27% (2026/08/07) — Temporary holding related to securities business (position adjustment)
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