Summary
The company returned to cumulative operating profitability through 3Q FY06/2026. The Mogecheck business completed its business model transition from lead referral fees to loan execution-based fees. Strategic curbs on advertising spend combined with SEO enhancements drove CPA down 49.6% YoY, prompting a 95.5% upward revision to full-year operating income guidance from JPY 58M to JPY 113M. The INVASE business saw its buy-sell model gain traction, delivering two consecutive quarters of profitability, though 3Q came in below expectations due to temporary procurement and contract delays caused by changes in bank underwriting criteria. Management indicated that the earnings foundation for both businesses is now in place and explicitly stated the company will transition to a topline expansion phase leveraging AI from next fiscal year onward.
Key Points (Earnings Highlights and Growth Actions)
- Business Strategy And Market Assessment
- In a rising rate environment, financial institutions continue to curtail online advertising budgets, creating a temporary headwind for Mogecheck
- Maintains a 2027 terminal policy rate outlook of 1.5%, with a risk scenario of 2.0%+ if yen weakness persists
- Real estate prices are increasingly bifurcated, with potential downward pressure on non-high-income areas as qualifying rates rise
- Current Business Progress And Key Drivers
- Mogecheck 3Q operating income of JPY 91M (swing to profitability), with back-loaded revenue from loan execution-based fees contributing in earnest
- Advertising expense ratio hit a record low of 35.3%, with three primary SEO keywords ranking in Google's top 10
- INVASE 3Q revenue (net of gross-up adjustments) of JPY 270M, +86% YoY but flat QoQ
- INVASE's 3Q plateau primarily attributable to contract delays from a specific bank's underwriting criteria change; assessed as temporary
- Strategic Initiatives And Inflection Points
- Full AI integration of all Mogecheck services targeted for completion by end of June 2026; development has begun for next fiscal year on MCP server-based mortgage application submissions via AI agents
- INVASE is developing a hybrid advisory service combining AI advisors and IAs, driving full AI automation across customer analysis, deal analysis, and property analysis
- Same-day disclosure of share purchases by officers and employees under the company's stock purchase program
Outlook And Strategy
- Revised full-year guidance: Revenue JPY 8,092M (pre-adjustment), operating income JPY 200M (+2.5% upward revision), net income JPY 150M
- Mogecheck full-year operating income of JPY 113M (+95.5% vs. initial plan), with 4Q OPM expected to reach a record-high 30.0%
- INVASE full-year operating income of JPY 86M (▲36.8% vs. initial plan), with continued profitability in 4Q targeting three consecutive profitable quarters
- From next fiscal year, the company will pursue growth on both topline and operating income simultaneously; specific plans to be disclosed at the full-year earnings announcement in August
- Vision 2030: Long-term targets unchanged — Mogecheck revenue of JPY 20B (10% market share), INVASE revenue of JPY 5B (gross profit basis)
- CEO summarized that both businesses have transitioned to a profitable structure, and explicitly stated the next stage is AI-driven scale expansion
Positive Factors
- Mogecheck CPA declined 49.6% YoY with ROAS improving 72%, indicating structural improvement in advertising efficiency
- Consistently maintaining top-10 rankings for primary SEO keywords (housing loans / mortgage rates / mortgage simulator)
- Media exposure on pace for approximately 200 placements annually, expanding CMO Shiozawa's profile as a mortgage analyst
- Room for business synergies from the capital and business alliance with Zenkoku Hosho (10.0% voting rights)
- Completed transition to loan execution-based fee model, deepening bank partnerships with ongoing discussions on preferential rates and application integration
- Prolonged inflation driving Greater Tokyo used condominium prices to JPY 66.72M (70 sqm), a supportive environment for the INVASE business
Concerns And Risks
- Mogecheck revenue contracted 43.2% YoY; monitoring required to confirm whether the advertising spend reduction strategy translates into topline recovery next fiscal year
- Timing of financial institutions' online advertising budget recovery remains uncertain, with banks continuing to revert toward real estate agent-focused sales channels
- INVASE business retains earnings volatility from external factors such as bank underwriting criteria changes; managing single-bank concentration risk remains a challenge
- Real estate held for sale on the balance sheet has expanded to approximately JPY 900M (as of 3Q-end), warranting attention to the balance between inventory risk and capital efficiency
- Under a risk scenario of policy rates exceeding 2.0%, qualifying rate increases could shrink the overall mortgage market
- Against Vision 2030's 10x revenue target, the current trend is one of declining revenue, making the return to a medium-term growth trajectory a key focal point
Performance Highlights
Consolidated cumulative revenue through 3Q FY06/2026 was JPY 5,764M (+194.7% YoY, including gross-up impact from the INVASE buy-sell model), or JPY 1,663M net of gross-up adjustments (▲14.9% YoY). Operating income of JPY 64M marked a return to cumulative profitability through 3Q. Full-year guidance was revised, with operating income now projected at JPY 200M (vs. prior forecast of JPY 195M, +2.5%).
Segment Performance
| Segment | Revenue (3Q Cumulative) | YoY | Operating Income (3Q Cumulative) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mogecheck Business | JPY 896M | ▲43.2% | ― | ― |
| INVASE Business | JPY 4,867M | +1,186.8% | ― | ― |
| (Ref.) INVASE Business — Net of Gross-Up | JPY 767M | +102.8% | ― | ― |
| MFS Group Total | JPY 5,764M | +194.7% | JPY 64M | ― |
- Mogecheck Application Volume (3Q Standalone): 16,999 (▲30.1% YoY)
- Mogecheck Revenue per Application (3Q Standalone): JPY 19,841 (+17.7% QoQ)
- Mogecheck CPA (3Q Standalone): JPY 7,006 (▲49.6% YoY)
- Mogecheck Advertising Expense Ratio (3Q Standalone): 35.3% (record low)
- Mogecheck Cumulative Registered Users: +126K YoY (as of March 2026)
- INVASE Contracts Closed (3Q Standalone): 148 (+51.0% YoY)
- INVASE Advertising Expense Ratio (3Q Standalone, Adjusted): 17.9%
- Full-Time Employees: 79 (engineers and designers ~25% of headcount)
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