Key Positives From The Results
The INVASE segment's pivot to a buy-sell model bore fruit, with property contracts reaching 484 (+93.6% YoY) and revenue surging to JPY 4,867M—roughly 12x YoY. MogeCheck returned to profitability on a standalone 3Q basis as the billing model transition ran its course, with CPA declining 49.6% YoY, reflecting a marked improvement in advertising efficiency. The fact that both segments achieved profitability represents a meaningful inflection point in the company's earnings structure transformation.
- INVASE Segment Property Contracts: 484 (+93.6% YoY); pivot to buy-sell model drove revenue to JPY 4,867M, a 12x+ increase YoY
- MogeCheck Segment: Returned to profitability on a cumulative 3Q basis (segment profit of JPY 14M). Ad spending ratio of 35.3% hit an all-time low
- Advertising Efficiency Gains: CPA down 49.6% YoY and ROAS up 72% YoY, underscoring the shift toward a profit-focused operating model
- Full-Year Guidance Raised: Operating income revised to JPY 200M (prior: JPY 195M). MogeCheck segment profit expected to overshoot by 95.5%
- AI-Powered Service Rollouts: Launched "AI Advisor" and "Mortgage Diagnostic Comments" leveraging generative AI, advancing the company's AI integration strategy
Key Concerns From The Results
Despite revenue of JPY 5,764M (+194.7% YoY), operating income came in at just JPY 64M (−63.3% YoY), indicating profits are not keeping pace with top-line growth. Sustainability of the INVASE buy-sell model's gross margin (approximately 63% gross profit margin on a post-gross-up adjustment basis) warrants close monitoring. MogeCheck revenue continued to contract at −43.2% YoY, and top-line recovery under the execution-based billing model remains a key challenge.
- MogeCheck Revenue Contraction: Revenue of JPY 896M (−43.2% YoY); user registrations at 95,301 (−7.9% YoY), with customer acquisition on a declining trend
- Sharp Increase In Interest-Bearing Debt: Rose from zero to JPY 748M (short-term borrowings JPY 411M, long-term borrowings etc. JPY 337M). Equity ratio declined from 87.7% to 72.6%
- INVASE Segment Stalling Versus Plan: Bank underwriting criteria changes led to flat 3Q standalone revenue QoQ, with both revenue and profit falling short of initial plan
- Inventory Risk From Real Estate For Sale: Ballooned from JPY 81M to JPY 919M. Downside risk from a deterioration in the property market deserves attention
- Loans To Officers: Long-term loans to officers increased from JPY 50M to JPY 140M. Greater governance transparency and accountability are warranted
Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward
- Following completion of MogeCheck's execution-based billing transition, concrete plans for top-line recovery from FY2027 onward (including potential ad spend increases) and the revenue growth outlook. This is a critical juncture for tracking progress toward the Vision 2030 target of 10% market share
- Optimal inventory levels and turnover management for INVASE's buy-sell model. Sell-through pace for the JPY 919M in real estate for sale at 3Q-end and procurement plans from 4Q onward
- Impact of financial institutions' online advertising budgets on MogeCheck amid a rising interest rate environment. Timeline for revenue contribution from renewed fixed-rate (Flat 35) customer acquisition
- Appropriateness of MogeCheck's full-year revenue target of JPY 1,224M under the execution-based billing model, and the scenario for top-line recovery next fiscal year
- Optimal inventory level and target inventory turnover days for real estate for sale in the INVASE segment
- Specific use of funds and repayment plan for the JPY 90M increase in long-term loans to officers
- Continuity of the three banks offering preferential rates and pipeline for adding new partners
- Monetization model and timeline for mortgage application via AI agent (MCP development)
- Specifics of the bank underwriting criteria changes affecting the INVASE segment and the basis for expected recovery in 4Q
- Expected launch timing and revenue impact of MogeCheck utilization via the real estate brokerage (offline) channel
- Current units under management in the property management (PM) business and targets for next fiscal year
- Quantification of specific synergies from the capital and business alliance with Zenkoku Hosho
- Whether intermediate KPIs have been set toward Vision 2030 targets of JPY 20B in MogeCheck revenue and JPY 5B in INVASE revenue for FY ending June 2030
Key Financial Highlights
| Item | Value | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 5,764M | +194.7% |
| Cost of Goods Sold | JPY 4,383M | +1,593.6% |
| Gross Profit | JPY 1,380M | −18.6% |
| SG&A | JPY 1,316M | −13.5% |
| Operating Income | JPY 64M | −63.3% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 77M | −55.5% |
| Net Income Attributable to Owners of Parent Company (Quarterly) | JPY 57M | −55.1% |
| EPS | JPY 6.10 | −57.0% |
| Diluted EPS | JPY 6.08 | −57.0% |
| Comprehensive Income | JPY 58M | −54.4% |
The shift to INVASE's buy-sell model drove COGS to approximately 16x YoY. Gross profit margin declined from 86.8% to 24.0%, but this reflects the gross-up effect (recording full property transaction values). Excluding the gross-up, gross profit margin was approximately 83%, broadly in line with the prior year. The 63.3% decline in operating income was primarily attributable to a temporary revenue decline associated with MogeCheck's billing model transition.
Performance By Business Segment
| Segment | Revenue | YoY | Operating Income | YoY | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MogeCheck | JPY 896M | −43.2% | JPY 14M | −96.2% | 1.7% |
| INVASE | JPY 4,867M | +1,186.8% | JPY 49M | Turned profitable | 1.0% |
| Total | JPY 5,764M | +194.7% | JPY 64M | −63.3% | 1.1% |
- INVASE Segment (Buy-Sell Model): Property contracts reached 484 (+93.6% YoY); gross-up adjusted revenue of JPY 767M (+102.8% YoY). The shift from brokerage to buy-and-resell proved successful, establishing a sourcing and sales framework powered by CAPM (AI pricing model) for identifying undervalued properties. Achieved profitability for the second consecutive quarter
- MogeCheck Segment (Advertising Efficiency): CPA of JPY 7,006 (−49.6% YoY), reflecting significantly improved advertising ROI. Ad spending ratio of 35.3% marked an all-time low, with ROAS up 72% YoY
- MogeCheck Segment (Top Line): Revenue of JPY 896M (−43.2% YoY). The transition from referral-based to execution-based billing pushed out revenue recognition, compounded by financial institutions cutting online advertising budgets amid rising interest rates. Mortgage application submissions fell to 45,118 (−18.5% YoY), and user registrations declined to 95,301 (−7.9% YoY)
- INVASE Segment (Versus Plan): Changes in bank underwriting criteria constrained 3Q standalone revenue (gross-up adjusted) to JPY 270M, flat QoQ, resulting in shortfalls versus initial plan on both revenue and profit
Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance
Cumulative 3Q operating income of JPY 64M represents 32.0% progress against the full-year plan of JPY 200M. On a revised full-year basis by segment, MogeCheck stands at JPY 14M cumulative / JPY 113M full-year (13.2%), while INVASE is at JPY 49M cumulative / JPY 86M full-year (57.0%)—a notable divergence. MogeCheck's plan calls for JPY 98M in 4Q operating income (30.0% OPM), which would require a record-high margin to achieve. While revenue progress of 71.2% contrasts with operating income progress of just 32.0%, both segments are targeting profitability in 4Q, lending a degree of plausibility to full-year profit targets.
| Item | Value (Cumulative 3Q) | Full-Year Forecast | Progress Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | JPY 5,764M | JPY 8,092M | 71.2% |
| Operating Income | JPY 64M | JPY 200M | 32.0% |
| Recurring Profit | JPY 77M | JPY 191M | 40.3% |
| Net Income | JPY 57M | JPY 150M | 38.5% |
- MogeCheck typically sees peak customer acquisition during the home-buying season (January–March). 3Q is usually the strongest quarter for top-line, but was dampened this fiscal year due to restrained advertising spend
Changes To Guidance
Full-year guidance was revised concurrent with this earnings release. Revenue was revised upward to reflect the increased gross-up impact from INVASE's buy-sell model expansion. Operating income was only marginally revised upward, as MogeCheck's outperformance offset INVASE's shortfall.
- Revenue: JPY 3,779M → JPY 8,092M (+113.8%)
- Operating Income: JPY 195M → JPY 200M (+2.5%)
- Recurring Profit: JPY 186M → JPY 191M (+2.5%)
- Net Income: JPY 146M → JPY 150M (+3.4%)
- Rationale: The primary driver of the revenue upgrade was increased gross-up (full property transaction value recording) from INVASE's expanding buy-sell model. Gross-up adjusted revenue is −14.1% versus the business plan. By segment, MogeCheck operating income was revised up from JPY 58M to JPY 113M (+95.5%), while INVASE was revised down from JPY 137M to JPY 86M (−36.8%)
Commentary On Shareholder Returns
The FY ending June 2026 dividend forecast remains unchanged at JPY 0.00 at year-end (JPY 0.00 annual total). No dividend was paid in the prior fiscal year (FY ending June 2025) either. No mention of share buyback programs or policies.
Financial Position
Expansion of INVASE's buy-sell model necessitated new debt financing, driving the equity ratio down from 87.7% to 72.6%. However, net assets increased by JPY 361M from the prior period-end to JPY 2,592M, supported by a third-party allotment to Zenkoku Hosho (JPY 267M) and retained earnings accumulation. The sharp increase in real estate for sale (+JPY 838M) was the primary driver of balance sheet expansion.
- Key Figures
- Leverage Metrics
| Item | Value | Additional Information |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and Deposits | JPY 1,914M | +5.1% vs. prior period-end |
| Real Estate For Sale | JPY 919M | +1,024.1% vs. prior period-end |
| Total Assets | JPY 3,551M | +40.0% vs. prior period-end |
| └ Total Current Assets | JPY 3,198M | +42.6% vs. prior period-end |
| └ Total Non-Current Assets | JPY 345M | +19.0% vs. prior period-end |
| Interest-Bearing Debt | JPY 748M | Newly raised (zero in prior period) |
| └ Short-Term Borrowings | JPY 411M | - |
| └ Current Portion of Long-Term Borrowings | JPY 107M | - |
| └ Long-Term Borrowings | JPY 230M | - |
| Shareholders' Equity | JPY 2,577M | +15.8% vs. prior period-end |
| EBITDA | JPY 85M | Operating income JPY 64M + depreciation JPY 21M |
News Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement
None
Major Announcements During The Quarter
Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year
- Zenkoku Hosho: 0.00% → 10.00% (2026/01/08) — Held for the purpose of a capital and business alliance with the issuer (third-party allotment, JPY 262 per share, 1,019,600 shares)
- Yui Capital Partners: 8.20% → 9.43% (2025/08/22) — Pure investment
- Yui Capital Partners: 6.82% → 8.20% (2025/05/19) — Pure investment
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