ENVALITH

MUSCAT GROUP Inc. 2Q Earnings Flash

bet consolidation lifts full-year revenue target to JPY 15.4B. Focus shifts to an H2 operating profit turnaround led by MiiS LIFT BRUSH and to rebuilding the balance sheet.

PublishedNovember 12, 2026 at 18:45 GMT+9

Key Positives From The 2Q Results

The H1 operating loss widened to JPY 299M. However, OPM improved 2.6pt YoY to -10.0% from -12.7% (our estimate). WinC's monthly P&L recovered after the August launch of MiiS LIFT BRUSH. The acquisition of bet, which is profitable and debt-free, strengthens the H2 earnings base. Management believes the sources of losses were identified and addressed in H1 and that H2 marks the start of a recovery phase.

  • Revenue:
    JPY 2,983M (+85.6% YoY). Growth came from the consolidation of Kanarabo and longer consolidation periods for the clinics and HaD. OPM improved 2.6pt YoY (our estimate).
  • WinC Monthly P&L:
    WinC's standalone monthly operating P&L bottomed at -JPY 45M in August. It improved to -JPY 2M in September and +JPY 10M in October (forecast), putting a return to profit within sight after the MiiS LIFT BRUSH launch.
  • bet Acquisition:
    bet (watch7) became a wholly owned subsidiary for JPY 1,000M. FY26/2 business profit was JPY 158M, implying an acquisition price of ~6.3x business profit (our estimate).
  • Revised Full-Year Forecast:
    The plan calls for an operating loss of JPY 211M (prior year: -JPY 399M) and adjusted EBITDA of JPY 75M, a return to positive territory. H2 operating income is planned at +JPY 88M.
  • Portfolio Clean-Up:
    Goodwill for the MOVE business was impaired, so it will incur no further goodwill amortization from H2 onward. The exit from low-synergy deals (RiLi, MOVE, KLab) is now largely in sight.

Key Concerns From The 2Q Results

A JPY 323M extraordinary loss cut net assets to JPY 508M. The equity ratio halved to 9.3% from 19.2% at the prior FY-end. The remaining JPY 950M of consideration for bet shares is due by end-March 2027, well above the JPY 300M of cash and deposits at the interim period-end. The method of capital raising and the degree of dilution will determine shareholder value going forward.

  • Goodwill And Leverage:
    Goodwill of JPY 2,121M equals 417% of net assets (company disclosure). The D/E ratio rose to 6.88x from 3.25x at the prior FY-end (our estimate).
  • Payment Terms:
    If JPY 500M of the consideration is not paid by 2027/3/31, the seller can reclaim the bet shares at no cost. The JPY 50M advance payment is also non-refundable under the contract.
  • Going-Concern Disclosure:
    Operating CF remains negative, and the filing flags events or conditions that raise material doubt about the going-concern assumption. The H1 operating CF of -JPY 11M was propped up by a JPY 297M increase in trade payables.
  • Downward Revision:
    Operating income for existing businesses was cut by JPY 374M from the initial plan. The main drivers were a cancelled large transaction (-JPY 149M) and a surge in clinic CPA (-JPY 164M).
  • Margin Dilution:
    bet consolidation is expected to lower GPM to ~24% for the full year and ~17% in H2 (company disclosure). Earnings will become more exposed to swings in watch prices and inbound demand.

Focus Areas / Items To Monitor Going Forward

  • Sustainability Of The WinC Recovery
    : MiiS LIFT BRUSH targets FY sales of more than JPY 500M. Delivery on the 3Q plan (consolidated operating loss of JPY 30M; -JPY 54M for existing businesses alone) will test the credibility of the H2 profitability plan.
  • Funding For The bet Acquisition
    : We will watch the funding method (debt or equity) and timing for the remaining JPY 950M, the resulting recovery in the equity ratio, and the extent of dilution.
  • Progress Rate On bet PMI
    : The key question is whether the retail mix and gross margins (B2B 3.1%→4.0%; retail 6–7%→10–12%) improve as planned after the rebranding to GINZA SEVEN.
Discussion Points For Management
  • Funding method and timing for the remaining JPY 950M payment for bet, and the tolerable level of dilution if equity financing is chosen
  • Expected size and amortization period of the goodwill arising from the bet acquisition, and a breakdown of the gap between its JPY 136M business profit and its JPY 113M operating income contribution
  • The risk assessment behind the cancellation of the large transaction with a major beauty brand, and screening criteria for future large deals
  • Causes of the CPA surge at the cosmetic dentistry clinic, and the sustainability of the expected monthly return to profit in November
  • Future direction of the MOVE.eBike business (including a sale or downsizing) and the potential for additional losses

Key Financial Highlights

ItemValueYoY
RevenueJPY 2,983M+85.6%
Gross ProfitJPY 1,488M+67.1%
└ Gross Profit Margin49.9%-5.5pt
SG&AJPY 1,787M+63.4%
└ Goodwill AmortizationJPY 109M+122.6%
Operating Income-JPY 299MPrior Year -JPY 203M
Adjusted EBITDA-JPY 148MPrior Year -JPY 109M
Recurring Profit-JPY 334MPrior Year -JPY 216M
└ Interest ExpenseJPY 42M+96.4%
Extraordinary LossesJPY 323MPrior Year JPY 30M
└ Impairment Loss (MOVE Business)JPY 183M-
└ Valuation Loss On Investment Securities (KLab Shares)JPY 133M-
Interim Net Income Attributable to Owners of Parent Company-JPY 691MPrior Year -JPY 186M
EPS-JPY 200.40Prior Year -JPY 62.41
  • Gross Margin And Operating Income Drivers:
    The GPM decline reflects two factors: a higher share of low-margin businesses, and the prior-year reclassification of delivery costs and EC fees into SG&A. At the operating level, Kanarabo and HaD contributed profit and WinC's loss narrowed. These gains were outweighed by a JPY 260M rise in corporate costs and goodwill amortization and a JPY 71M decline at the clinics (company disclosure; managerial accounting basis).
  • Quarterly Trend:
    On a standalone quarterly basis, 2Q revenue was JPY 1,666M (+26.5% QoQ). The operating loss was JPY 158M versus JPY 141M in 1Q (our estimate). Adjusted EBITDA was -JPY 63M in 1Q and -JPY 84M in 2Q (company disclosure).

Performance By Business Segment

The company reports a single segment, the Brand Produce Business. On a managerial accounting basis, revenue growth was led by Kanarabo (+JPY 1,502M), the clinics (+JPY 175M) and HaD (+JPY 107M). WinC (-JPY 146M) and RCP and others (-JPY 258M) were the main drags.

Segment Performance Table

SegmentRevenueYoYOperating IncomeYoYMargin
Brand Produce Business (Company-Wide)JPY 2,983M+85.6%-JPY 299M--10.0%
Strong Performers
  • Fujiko (Kanarabo): 2Q sales of JPY 724M, +40.1% QoQ. Growth came from a best-cosmetics award, YouTuber tie-ups, more wholesale shelf placements and overseas sales to Greater China. The repeat rate for focus products reached 81.7%.
  • b idol (Kanarabo): 2Q sales of JPY 180M, +28.6% QoQ (our estimate). Sales grew across all channels, led by online marketplaces. Repeat sales of focus products roughly tripled QoQ to JPY 30M.
  • MiiS: 2Q sales of JPY 273M, up from JPY 108M in the prior quarter and +46.8% YoY (our estimate). LIFT BRUSH ramped up from September, and marketplace sales recovered on the back of TikTok Shop.
  • Matsumura Shoten / HaD: Matsumura Shoten's H1 GPM was 45.8% (plan: 41.9%), supported by growth in direct-to-consumer EC such as ROCO NAILS. HaD's business profit rose by JPY 42M YoY.
Underperformers
  • WinC (Existing MiiS / MOVE): Revenue fell by JPY 146M YoY. The business loss narrowed to -JPY 144M from -JPY 244M. However, MOVE failed to generate cross-channel synergies, which led to the impairment.
  • Clinics (MOM / Harukikai): Business profit fell by JPY 71M YoY. CPA surged at the cosmetic dentistry clinic, pushing up SG&A.
  • RCP And Others: Revenue fell by JPY 258M YoY, reflecting the sale of NADESIKO and of the lifestyle-category social media support business. RCP's 2Q revenue was JPY 178M (prior-year period: JPY 271M).
  • bialne / Contract Planning And Manufacturing: bialne missed its new-customer acquisition plan, with 2Q sales of JPY 80M (-4.8% QoQ). Contract manufacturing sales were JPY 148M (-5.7% YoY) as bag retail floor space shrank.

Progress Versus Full-Year Guidance

Progress against the full-year revenue plan is only 19.3%. However, JPY 9,124M of the JPY 15,444M plan comes from bet, which will be consolidated for December–March. Progress against the JPY 6,321M plan for existing businesses is 47.2%, above the prior year's H1 revenue share of 38.9% (both our estimates). The H1 operating loss was JPY 299M against a full-year plan of -JPY 211M, which implies H2 operating income of +JPY 88M. The 3Q monthly plan still shows losses of JPY 11M in October and JPY 42M in November. A return to profit therefore depends on bet consolidation from December and on MiiS marketplace sales events.

ItemValue (2Q Cumulative)Full-Year PlanProgress
RevenueJPY 2,983MJPY 15,444M19.3%
Revenue (Existing Businesses)JPY 2,983MJPY 6,321M47.2%
Gross ProfitJPY 1,488MJPY 3,658M40.7%
Operating Income-JPY 299M-JPY 211M-
Adjusted EBITDA-JPY 148MJPY 75M-
Net Income-JPY 691M--

Changes To Guidance

Full-year guidance was revised. bet consolidation lifts revenue by more than 2.3x, while operating income was cut into negative territory to reflect shortfalls in existing businesses. Adjusted net income has been dropped from disclosure because one-off items now distort it too heavily for it to reflect underlying earnings power. Operating income and adjusted EBITDA will serve as the key metrics going forward. Net income attributable to owners of the parent remains undisclosed, citing difficulty in estimating tax expenses, among other reasons.

  • Revenue:
    JPY 6,602M → JPY 15,444M (+133.9%)
  • Operating Income:
    JPY 50M → -JPY 211M
  • Adjusted EBITDA:
    JPY 324M → JPY 75M (-76.9%)
  • Net Income:
    Net income attributable to owners of the parent remains undisclosed. Adjusted net income (previously JPY 128M) has been removed from disclosure.
  • Reasons For Revision:
    Operating income for existing businesses is now -JPY 324M, JPY 374M below the previous plan. The breakdown is: cancellation of a large transaction (-JPY 149M), clinics (-JPY 164M), existing WinC brands (-JPY 85M), Kanarabo (-JPY 39M), corporate costs (-JPY 22M) and other (-JPY 7M). Upside at Matsumura Shoten and others (+JPY 92M) partially offset these declines. bet adds revenue of JPY 9,124M and operating income of JPY 113M.

Commentary On Shareholder Returns

The annual dividend forecast was maintained at JPY 0 (prior year: JPY 0). There were no share buybacks and no changes to buyback policy. During the period, 50,000 shares were issued on the exercise of stock acquisition rights, bringing shares outstanding to 3,468,520.

Financial Position

Debt-funded M&A has left goodwill and interest-bearing debt far exceeding shareholders' equity. The extraordinary loss pushed the equity ratio down to 9.3%. With the remaining bet payment approaching, rebuilding the balance sheet through capital reinforcement is the top priority.

  • Key Figures
  • Leverage Metrics
ItemValueAdditional Information
Cash and Cash EquivalentsJPY 290M-57.9% vs. prior FY-end. Cash and deposits of JPY 300M
Shareholders' EquityJPY 485M-55.3% vs. prior FY-end
Net AssetsJPY 508M-53.2% vs. prior FY-end
Interest-Bearing DebtJPY 3,336MExcl. leases. -5.5% vs. prior FY-end on scheduled repayments
└ Short-Term BorrowingsJPY 730MPrior FY-end: JPY 820M
└ Long-Term Borrowings (Incl. Current Portion)JPY 2,426MCurrent portion: JPY 976M
└ Bonds (Incl. Current Portion)JPY 180M-
GoodwillJPY 2,121M-8.2% vs. prior FY-end, mainly due to MOVE impairment
Accounts PayableJPY 636M+88.1% vs. prior FY-end
EBITDA-JPY 148MCompany-disclosed adjusted EBITDA (operating income + depreciation + goodwill amortization + acquisition-related costs)
  • Cash Flow:
    Operating CF was -JPY 11M (prior year: -JPY 154M), investing CF -JPY 225M (incl. -JPY 113M for business acquisitions) and financing CF -JPY 162M. FCF was -JPY 237M (our estimate).
  • bet Debt Position:
    bet is debt-free, so its consolidation adds no interest-bearing debt (company disclosure). However, the remaining JPY 950M of consideration must still be paid separately.

Disclosures Released Alongside The Earnings Announcement

  • 2026/11/12
    Full-year guidance revised to revenue of JPY 15,444M, operating income of -JPY 211M and adjusted EBITDA of JPY 75M. Disclosure of adjusted net income discontinued (Notice Regarding Revision of Full-Year Consolidated Earnings Forecast)
  • 2026/11/12
    Acquired all shares of bet (watch7) for JPY 1,000M, making it a subsidiary the same day. The deal marks entry into the luxury resale market, with the remaining payment due by 2027/3/31 (Notice Regarding Acquisition of Shares of bet (Making It a Subsidiary))

Major Announcements During The Quarter

  • 2026/08/28
    Fujiko "Keana Odamari! Cream" reached cumulative sales of ~230,000 units in five months since launch, ~2.8x the initial forecast. The product is underpinning Kanarabo's growth
  • 2026/09/17
    Retail distribution of the cream expanded to ~9,000 stores, 3x the original plan. This corroborates the increase in wholesale shelf placements
  • 2026/09/25
    MiiS LIFT BRUSH surpassed 3,000 units and JPY 54M in cumulative sales, including Makuake pre-sales. The product is the starting point for WinC's recovery
  • 2026/10/07
    Kanarabo's average monthly EC sales over the past three months rose to ~2.8x the level immediately after it joined the group. This demonstrates the results of EC enhancement through PMI
  • 2026/10/16
    MiiS LIFT BRUSH won eight titles on Qoo10, including No. 1 in the overall ranking. This confirms expansion into marketplace channels

Large-Shareholding Filings / Material Proposals Over The Past Year

  • ULTIMATE CLASSIC INVESTMENT LLC: New → 11.2% (2026/03/05, amended report) - Pure investment. Respects current management's policies and supports medium- to long-term enhancement of corporate value
  • ULTIMATE CLASSIC INVESTMENT LLC: 11.2% → 11.3% (2026/05/01, amended report) - Pure investment. Filed due to a change in representative
  • ULTIMATE CLASSIC INVESTMENT LLC: 11.3% → 12.3% (2026/06/07) - Pure investment. Holding ratio increased by 1% or more
  • ULTIMATE CLASSIC INVESTMENT LLC: 12.3% → 10.9% (2026/08/12) - Pure investment. Holding ratio decreased by 1% or more
Disclaimer

ENVALITH, INC. ("ENVALITH") provides exclusive research coverage services to domestic and international institutional investors, as well as domestic individual investors, with the objective of contributing to the development of global and Japanese capital markets by providing information necessary for considering investments in Japanese listed companies.

  • Purpose and Disclaimer Regarding Investment Decisions

    This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute a solicitation to acquire, sell, or hold securities or any other financial products. Furthermore, this report does not constitute specific investment, financial, or tax advice. Any opinions, judgments, or recommendations contained herein are not intended to induce investment activities. Please be advised that all investment decisions must be made based on the investor's own responsibility and judgment, and ENVALITH and subject company shall not be involved in any such investment decisions.

  • Information Sources, Accuracy, and Disclaimer of Warranty

    This report has been prepared based on a formal request from the subject company, utilizing information provided by and interviews conducted with said company. By using this report, you are deemed to have agreed to the following: 1. Information Sources: This report is prepared on the assumption that the publicly available information and information disclosed by the subject company and provided during interviews is true and reliable. ENVALITH has not independently verified or validated the veracity of such information. 2. Accuracy: The interpretations, analyses, and hypotheses or conclusions based thereon contained in this report are independently derived by ENVALITH using its own perspectives and analytical methods based on the information mentioned in the preceding paragraph. 3. Disclaimer of Warranty: In the event that there are errors or omissions in the information disclosed by the subject company, ENVALITH and subject company shall not be held liable for any inaccuracies in this report resulting therefrom. ENVALITH and subject company make no warranties, whether express or implied, regarding the accuracy, safety, validity, completeness, or any other aspect of this report, nor regarding the past or future performance of the subject company.

  • Limitation of Liability

    ENVALITH and subject company shall not be liable for any costs, damages, or losses (including direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages) arising from the use of this report or the information obtained therefrom. Users of this report acknowledge and agree that such use is at their own risk.

  • Potential Conflicts of Interest

    ENVALITH may have, or may have in the future, business relationships with the subject company. Accordingly, investors should be aware that conflicts of interest may exist that could affect the objectivity of this report.

  • No Obligation to Change or Update Content

    The contents and opinions in this report, as well as the information upon which it is based, are current as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Please be advised that ENVALITH is under no obligation to update the contents of this report, and investors must verify the timeliness of the information on their own.

  • Governing Language

    This report is prepared in Japanese, English, and Chinese. In the event of any discrepancy or difference in interpretation between the language versions, the Japanese version shall be treated as the original and shall prevail.

  • Copyright

    All rights (including copyrights) relating to this report belong to ENVALITH. Any reproduction, redistribution, or other use of all or part of this report without the prior written permission of ENVALITH is strictly prohibited.

  • Use for Other Investment Products

    Except where ENVALITH has provided prior written approval, the use of this report and the trademarks or trade names of ENVALITH or the subject company in connection with the information distribution, transaction, sales promotion, or advertising of any investment products (including derivatives, structured products, investment trusts, or investment assets whose price, return, or performance is based on or linked to this report) is strictly prohibited.